Canadian federal election - 2015

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Yes, the difference is CGY + EDM = 2/3 of Alberta' pop. In Sask Regina+Saskatoon = 1/2 of the Sask's population. Saskatchewan is much more rural/small town.

According to Wiki, Greater Calgary and Greater Edmonton combine for 47 of Alberta's 87 ridings.

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Burnaby leans NDP though it is more competitive at the provincial and federal level.

The Green Party candidate in that riding is a science professor who got arrested at a Kinder-Morgan protest.  That said, I too would suspect that the numbers are reversed.

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Say, I was looking at the map for the last election and I noticed something I thought was peculiar. The NDP won their best result ever - and yet they didn't manage to get any seats in Saskatchewan, the province where historically they have dominated? Even in that regional poll that Canadaland just posted, the NDP are level with their numbers in Atlantic Canada, a region with no real Dipper tradition. What's up with that?

The NDP lost a lot nearly all their support in the rural parts of the province, including what used to be called 'Red Square', the block of rural ridings in central Saskatchewan that part of which used to be represented by Lorne Nystrom.

So, that has hurt them given that for the prior several federal elections, the ridings of Regina and Saskatoon were, unlike in every other province in Canada, combined urban/rural ridings.

Had there been strictly urban ridings, the NDP would likely have won one urban seat in Regina and one in Saskatoon.  I believe the NDP was also hurt in Northern Saskatchewan by a vote split between themselves and the Liberals that allowed the Conservative to come up the middle and narrowly defeat the NDP.

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

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The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

The Tories won Prince Albert riding by a 2-1 margin!

I think he mixed up Palliser & Prince Albert.

My bad, sorry.

I think I got the general points correct though.

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And in regards to the current weakness of the SKNDP, keep in mind that Canadian parties typically wax and wane in a region quite spectacularly. In the 1965 federal election, the NDP failed to win a single seat in SK even with Tommy Douglas as leader! He was elected from BC instead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1965

That was due to the lingering effects of the doctor's strike as well as P.C Leader Diefenbaker being from Saskatchewan (Prince Albert).

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The NDP won seats in Saskatchewan in every election until 2004 and in each of the '04, '06, '08 and '11 elections while the NDP was shut out in Sask it was largely bad luck from having a couple of very near misses in each of those elections.

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections. With the current map and 2011 results, the NDP would have won two seats in Saskatchewan (one in Regina and one in Saskatoon). I think it's reasonable to assume that the NDP would have had at least some representation in Saskatchewan prior to 2011 as well.

Did Scooby Doo invent the term 'rurban'?

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The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections.

Not quite. The "rurban" ridings existed in the 1997 and 2000 elections and the NDP managed to win several of them. In fact in 1988 and 1993 the NDP even won some purely rural ridings in Saskatchewam

Those rural ridings (likely just the one riding of Yorkton in 1993) were in the area previously known as "Red Square" that I mentioned earlier.

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New British Columbia candidates

NDP
1.Rebecca Smith, Cloverdale-Langley City, Acclaimed

2.Pixie Hobby, South Surrey-White Rock, Environmental Lawyer, Justice Canada Senior Counsel, Acclaimed

3.Jeremy Leveque, Delta, University Teaching Assistant, Former PSAC Organizer, Former Moore's Clothing For Men Sales Associate, B.A and M.A-Political Science, PhD Candidate-Philosophy (Sociology), Acclaimed

Liberal
1.Don Johnston, Kootenay-Columbia, Retired CEO Columbia Basin Trust, Former CEO Canada World Youth, Acclaimed

Upcoming Liberal Nomination, May 30
South Surrey-White Rock
1.Joy Davies, Director B.C Medical Cannabis Partners, Retired Business Owner, Grand Forks City Councillor 2008-2011 (Defeated), Former Tumbler Ridge City Councillor

2.Peter Njenga, CGA and Firm Owner, Charity Founder and Director, Former Hotel and Restaurant Owner in Kenya, B.A-Accounting, CGA, MBA, PhD-Philosophy (Finance)

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My prediction which has an enormous track record of success as you all know is that Peter Van Loan will replace MacKay as Attorney General.

I don't believe Van Loan is a genius but he'd be a major step up from a person whose IQ is measured in negative digits.

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Reuters: MacKay will make some money in the private sector, then "when people want more of a PC govt. in 6-7 years, he'll be there."

Agreed w/Matt Gurney.

I don't know where this notion that Peter MacKay is a 'red tory' comes from.  He was the guy who arranged the merger with the Alliance Party (After lying that he wouldn't) and all the positions that he's taken, in Foreign Affairs, Defense and especially in Justice have been on the far far right of the political spectrum.

Maybe he's just been a right wing sock puppet for Harper and the views he's expressed as a cabinet minister aren't really his own, but then, who would  want such a spineless toady as Prime Minister?

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He's not gonna form a coalition with anyone. His voters would strongly prefer he support Mulcair. In any event if Trudeau is Opposition Leader then both Harper and Mulcair will not be leaders for long.

Even if Mulcair wins the most seats?

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NDP and Liberals both take the same position on implementing the recommendations of the Aboriginal Truth and Reconciliation Commission: all of the recommendations should be implemented.

Can anybody tell me a single policy difference between mainstream New Democrats and 'Red' Liberals?

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Harper will resign if he gets anything less than another majority, he would've done same in 2011. I doubt the opposition parties will be more friendly to Kenney or Moore than they would Harper, and at any rate a leadership process + voter considerations means opposition would want to vote down a Throne Speech as easiest route. If Harper gets a plurality, that is.

Hopefully James Moore will lost to Sarah Norman and no longer be an M.P.

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http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Seat predictions based on poll results, especially polls of this size, are notoriously poor.  

In fact, I believe most Canadian firms gave up attempting to do it because they had previously embarrased themselves and hurt their credibility.

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Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-and-mulcair-continue-to-rise/

Judging by the second choice poll, looks like they steal mostly NDP votes.

But this assumes Duceppe *does* steal votes at all. Judging by comments on social media in Quebec so far, the reaction seems to be pretty horrible outside of the hard sovereigntists. It's one thing to think the party was better under Duceppe (before 2011, that is). It's another to actually want to see him come back.

Personally I always liked Duceppe.  Obviously didn't agree with his nationalist asperations or many of his semi communist political views, but I always thought he was an honest person with great integrity.

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http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?

It's likely very rare, but it's not entirely unheard of.  These are the results of the Alberta election excluding Edmonton and (some) of the Edmonton suburbs. (For a description of what is an isn't included, check out the wiki page on the 2015 Alberta elections for how they defined the regions.)

NDP 32.75% 33
W.R 29.40 21
P.C 30.12 10
Lib 3.84 1
A.P 2.71 1


So the NDP won 33 of 66 ridings in a virtual 3 way split.  If the votes fall just right, you can win a majority under these circumstances.

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Because Marois scared him off twice. Both times were extremely hilarious, '07 more than '12.

I heard the reason was that while the P.Q and most Quebec voters didn't mind that Duceppe had at least some communistic views as the leader of a federal party, very few people wanted that in a possible Premier.

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Moore retiring.

NDP+1

Cheers from the NDP's BC team!
Moore's riding was being redistributed out anyway...
NDP's Fin Donnelly is going to have incumbent advantage in Port Moody-Coquitlam... and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman. Sad, it would have been fun to see Moore go up against a reporter/journalist who won an award for exposing some of Moore's comments in regards to child poverty.

If this is true, and not some accidental rumor it is a shocker.  He's not even 40 yet (39) and had been widely believed to have interest in running for party leader (not that he can't run from the outside.)  This also suggests that Conservative insiders don't believe their party can form the government after the next election (they may believe the Cons will win the most seats but they obviously believe the Liberals and the NDP will team up to defeat them and put together a government) as this makes the second or third cabinet minister who had been mentioned as being interested in running for leader to announce his retirement (Moore, Peter McKay and to a lesser degree John Baird).

On a couple more minor points,
1.James Moore's riding was redistributed as were nearly all the ridings across Canada, but I believe this new riding is comprised of well over half of Moore's old riding.  According to the redistributed riding results on one of the government websites, the Conservatives received around 55% of the vote in this new riding based on the 2011 election results.

2.The NDP candidate's name is actually Sara Norman, there's no 'H'.  I checked because I made the same mistake myself last time.  Minor point, but out of respect, I do believe we should try to spell people's names properly (and pronounce them properly too.)  Of course, you are completely free to disagree with my opinion on this.

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Not a rumor:

Industry Minister James Moore will not be running again in the upcoming federal election in order to spend time with his family and care for his young disabled son, according to a statement released on his website Friday afternoon.

"Balancing family responsibilities while in public life is always a challenge. This is particularly true when you have a child with special needs," the statement reads.

Moore, MacKay just latest loss for federal Conservatives
How to make Parliament more family friendly
"Recently, my wife and I received some difficult news about the health of our beautiful son Spencer."

Moore's statement continues to say he will finish his term as MP and then return home to "pursue new opportunities and be closer to my young family."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/james-moore-conservative-cabinet-minister-leaving-federal-politics-1.3120148

A statement like that will obviously make it difficult for him to run for the leadership should Harper step down after the election.  What's he going to say: "Well, it was more important to care for my special needs child than by Industry Minister, but being Prime Minister is much more important than my son!" or maybe "Praise God! My son miraculously healed!" ?

Anyway, in this case it sounds like 'family considerations' was the actual reason and at Moore won't run to replace Harper, though he could run to replace Harper's replacement.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

When I went to junior high school in the middle 1980s there were a two or three Saras in our class, and none of them had an 'H'.  I believe in the late 1960s early 1970s Sara(h) was the second most popular name for a girl after Jennifer.

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In regards to Moore, somebody here should add that his situation is sad, and I certainly feel sorry for him, though having a special needs child can be a blessing far more than a curse.

Other than his comment to Sara Norman, and equally bad his attempt to deny that he said it, I generally liked James Moore.  He was a mostly competent cabinet minister and seemed to be a decent person.

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues. 

It likely would not be impossible for him to balance being an MLA and a father of a special needs child.  The legislature doesn't meet most times of the year, and he could probably afford to take an airplane (harbor air?) between Vancouver Island and the mainland once or twice a week.  These airplanes I believe take only 20 minutes to get from Vancouver Island to the mainland.  To be sure, I don't know where these planes land, but if it's the same place as where the Ferries dock in the lower mainland (Tsawwassen, which is part of Delta) the trip from there to Coquitlam depending on the time of day would probably take close to 2 hours if not longer.  Of course, there's no reason for it to be the same place as where the ferries dock.

He would likely become an obvious candidate to replace Christy Clark as leader as I can't think of any obvious successor in her caucus to her at this point.

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...and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman.

One must first understand Moore's redistributed riding of Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam and its demographics before one can come to a conclusion of the election-day outcome:

1. Port Moody portion - Heritage Mountain, which is high-end, single-family residential that goes wayyy up the mountain;

2. Coquitlam - Westwood Plateau, which is also high-end, single-family residential and also goes wayyyy up the mountain;

3. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain, which is also mostly high-end, single-family residential and massive amount of development continuing to occur there as I post;

4. Port Coquitlam - Citadel Heights, which is also higher-end, single-family residential at its southern end;

5. Coquitlam Town Centre - new condo towers continue to sprout up;

6. Everything in-between  - old "brownfield" sites comprising older houses on larger acreages continue to be redeveloped into new townhouse/single-family residential developments;

IOW, residential growth/population growth continues to favour the CPC in the riding. A major CPC collapse would need to occur, during the height of the campaign, in order for the CPC to lose the seat IMHO.

In the provincial election, both the NDP and the Liberals won 2 of the 4 Coquitlam area ridings.  The NDP handily won the Port Coquitlam area riding and won Coquitlam-Maillardville after the special ballots were counted (or in a recount).  The Liberals narrowly won the Port Moody area riding, though that was likely close only because the NDP candidate was the MLA and popular former mayor Joe Trasolini who had won it in a byelection roughly one year earlier.  The Liberals handily won Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

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If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues.

Though, coming from the Canadian Alliance wing, James Moore isn't so much a "Red Tory" as a mainstreamish Con whose "liberal" values are more of an authentically generational trait than anything.  (By comparison, Pierre Poilievre is more of an out-and-out zealot.)

I'm not sure about his economics, but according to Campaign Life Coalition, he's one of the most socially liberal Tory MP's.

Based on his time as Industry Minister he seems to fit comfortably into Blue Liberal/Mainstream Conservative thinking:  government investment into high tech, so-called smart regulation and deregulation and pro free trade, especially, in his case, interprovincial free trade.

All of these things are completely compatible with the provincial Liberals. He has since said though that he plans to run again for the Federal Conservatives in short order, so even taking him out of consideration for the federal Conservative leadership may be premature.

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Jessie Adcock, Gregor Roberson's Chief Digital Officer won the Liberal nomination yesterday in Port Moody-Coquitlam over another tech sector type, business person Anthony Chohan.

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New B.C Conservative Party candidates.  
I'd say they have some pretty good first time candidates, but other than Dianne Watts, they only have a couple other high profile candidates.

The Conservatives won 21 of the 36 B.C ridings in the last election.  With 6 incumbents retiring (so far) and 6 new ridings that makes for 27 new candidates.  They've nominated 19 of them so far.

Vancouver
1.Vancouver-Granville (new riding), Erinn Broshko, Lawyer, Rand Investments Corp Managing Director/Management Consulting Firm Principal, M.A-Political Science, MBA

2.Vancouver-Kingsway, Francisco (Jojo) Quimpo, Rock Singer and Arts Promotion Firm Owner, Former Paralegal and Law Firm Evidence Management Co-Ordinator

Lower Mainland
1.Burnaby North-Seymour (new riding) Mike Little, Operations Westran Portside Terminals, North Vancouver District Councillor 2005-2014, B.A-Political Science and Government

2.New Westminster-Burnaby, Chloe Ellis,25, General Manager Volume Studio Ltd (Combined Art Gallery and Hair Salon), BBA-Marketing Management, MBA

3.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Tim Laidler, Executive Director Veteran's Armed Forces Transition Network, Retired Canadian Forces Corporal, B.A-Philosophy and Political Science, M.A-Counselling Psychology

4.Steveston-Richmond East (new riding), Kenny Chiu, Firm Senior Software Development Manager, Richmond School Trustee 2011-2014

Fraser Valley
1.Cloverdale-Langley City (new riding), Dean Drysdale, Business Management Professor, Corporate Finance Consultant and Firm Owner (Chartwell Strategies Corp), Canadian Army Reserves Lieutenant Colonel and Former Artillery Officer, C.A Designation, B.A-Economics, MBA, PhD-Organizational Behavior, Langley Township Councillor 1996-2002

2.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon (new riding), Liv Grewal (son of Nina and Gurmant Grewel), Behavioral Economics Consultant (Good Nudge Consultants), Former Harper PMO Intern, B.A-Political Science, M.Sc-Public Management and Governance (from LSE)

3.South Surrey-White Rock (Conservative Riding - Russ Hiebert), Dianne Watts, Former Credit Manager and Former Architecture Firm Materials Consultant, Surrey City Councillor 1996-2005, Surrey Mayor 2005-2014

4.Surrey Center, Suche Thind, President Mainland Aluminum Co (Aluminum railing design, manufacture and installation), B.A-

5.Surrey-Newton, Harpreet Singh, Joy T.V Harpreet Singh Show Host and Producer (Contemporary Religion Program), Former Journalist, M.A-Journalism

Vancouver Island
1.Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Shari Lukens, Former Telus Vancouver Island Sales Manager and Former Project Manager, Former Television News Anchor and Journalist, Former Figure Skater and Head Coach, BCIT Broadcasting Diploma, Colwood City Councillor 2011-2014

2.Nanaimo-Ladysmith, Mark McDonald, Former Managing Editor Nanaimo Daily News, President Invest Northwest Publishing (Publisher of four Monthly Business Examiner Newspapers), Greater Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce Executive and Former President

3.North Island-Powell River (Conservative Riding-John Duncan) (Duncan is sort of relocating to the adjacent Courtney-Alberni riding to replace retiring Conservative (Ind) M.P James Lunney), Laura Smith,45, M.P John Duncan Senior Advisor, Former Operational Forester, Search and Rescue Volunteer, B.Sc-Biology

4.Victoria, John Rizzuti,66, Small Business Owner, Retired Elementary School Principal, Former President B.C Principals and Vice Principals Association, 2014 Greater Victoria School Board Candidate (12,458 votes), B-Ed, M-Ed

Interior
1.Cariboo-Prince George (Conservative riding-Dick Harris), Todd Doherty, Former Prince George Airport Authority Director of Business Development-Aviation Services

2.North Okanagan-Shuswap (Conservative riding-Colin Mayes), Mel Arnold, Owner Complete Marine Detailing (Repair Facility), Past President B.C Wildlife Federation

3.Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Tyler Nesbitt,31, Road Maintenance Company (Nechako Northcoast), Operations and Quality Assurance Coordinator, B.A-Anthropolgy/Archaeology

4.South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Marshall Neufeld, Realtor, Former M.P Stockwell Day Senior Parliamentary Assistant, Former Physiotherapy Assistant, Conservative Party of Canada National Council Member,  Penticton Christian School Board Vice Chair (elected?)