Your Iowa GOP Predictions.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

IIRC it was the most accurate and it correctly predicted the last minute surge of Rick Santorum

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz 27%
Trump 25%
Rubio 21%
Paul 8%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

IIRC it was the most accurate and it correctly predicted the last minute surge of Rick Santorum

I checked, and it had Santorum trailing Romney by nine points. (Santorum 15, Paul 22, Romney 24). Though to be fair, it did show him very close on the last day of polling.

Also no one thought or could have known Santorum could have won Iowa, everyone was proven wrong lol

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Polls can give a good idea of what is happening but because of the caucus process people can change their minds literally last second, I'm still sticking to my prediction that Cruz will win Iowa with both Trump and Rubio above 20%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Won't be predicting anything until we see Selzer here. But I'm not buying the Rubio surge. Seems like wishful thinking from the media.

I agree that it's probably wishful thinking, but there's also the strong possibility it become a self fulfulling prophecy. Particularly since as much as they're spamming about Rubio being the messiah, they're simultaneously tearing down Cruz.

THEIR BONER REMEMBER?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

30% - Ted Cruz
25% - Donald Trump
16% - Marco Rubio
  9% - Rand Paul
  8% - Ben Carson
  4% - Jeb! Bush
  2% - Mike Huckabee
  2% - Chris Christie
  2% - John Kasich
  1% - Carly Fiorina
  1% - Rick Santorum

BONUS: At least Huckabee will drop out after this. Santorum should, too, but I don't know if he will.

I'll agree with this sentiment.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the predicted (and unprecedented) turnout actually arrives, Trump. Otherwise, Cruz.

I haven't seen any evidence of a big pickup in voter registrations, but then again, there doesn't seem to be a bunch of information like that available.

I'm going to say Trump, unfortunately, but that's partially just me trying to set low expectations so I'm not disappointed.

I'm gonna wait for the Entrance Poll, I think turnout is going to be between the Trump high and the average, I am honestly thinking it will be very close.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the predicted (and unprecedented) turnout actually arrives, Trump. Otherwise, Cruz.

I haven't seen any evidence of a big pickup in voter registrations, but then again, there doesn't seem to be a bunch of information like that available.

I'm going to say Trump, unfortunately, but that's partially just me trying to set low expectations so I'm not disappointed.

I'm gonna wait for the Entrance Poll, I think turnout is going to be between the Trump high and the average, I am honestly thinking it will be very close.

There's an entrance poll?

Yes, the entrance poll from 2012 had a three way tie between Santorum, Romney and Paul.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the predicted (and unprecedented) turnout actually arrives, Trump. Otherwise, Cruz.

I haven't seen any evidence of a big pickup in voter registrations, but then again, there doesn't seem to be a bunch of information like that available.

I'm going to say Trump, unfortunately, but that's partially just me trying to set low expectations so I'm not disappointed.

I'm gonna wait for the Entrance Poll, I think turnout is going to be between the Trump high and the average, I am honestly thinking it will be very close.

There's an entrance poll?

Here is the entrance poll data from 2012 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa/exit-polls