UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017

[Clyde1998]

West of England Mayor (1st Round)
Con - 53,796 (27.3%)
Lab - 43,627 (22.2%)
Lib - 39,794 (20.2%)
Ind - 29,500 (15.0%)
Grn - 22,054 (11.2%)
UKIP - 8,182 (4.2%)

Conservative-Labour run-off. I think Labour may have this one.

What the hell kind of title is that? God, these mayoral things...

It's not even what I'd call the West of England. It's more Avon or 'Greater Bristol'.

I just looked at its composition. Yeah, Greater Bristol would have been much better!

Sky News have just said that Bristol already has a mayor! So, there's a mayor of Bristol and a mayor of 'West of England'!

[Clyde1998]

Prof John Curtice: "We have seen a very strong swing from Labour to the Conservatives, averaging around 7% points"

If that's replicated at the General Election, that would equate to a Conservative majority of 132 seats. (That just changes Con/Lab support, not any other party).

[Clyde1998]

@SkyNewsBreak: Turnout in the Greater Manchester mayoral election was 28.9%

[Clyde1998]

No Overall Control GAINS Bridend from Labour (Sky News)

[Clyde1998]

Turns out control of Merthyr Tydfil isn't settled until a by-election on 8 June to fill three seats in one ward. The election had to be delayed due to the death of a candidate.

It seems bizarre that candidates can't be replaced after the declaration period if they've died. Eitherway, perhaps Labour will hold the council after all.

[Clyde1998]

No Overall Control RETAINS Ceredigion

[Clyde1998]

West of England Mayor
Con - 70,300
Lab - 65,923

Con Win

[Clyde1998]

West of England Mayor
Con - 70,300
Lab - 65,923

Con Win

My expectation was for Labour to win due to greens and lib dems 2nd preferencing here, hmm....

That's what I was expecting, but it appears that around 60,000 voters didn't use their second preference (or second preferenced a candidate that was eliminated in the first round) - which may explain the Conservative win here.

Perhaps, Green voters second preferences when to the Lib Dems, expecting a Conservative-Lib Dem second round?

[Clyde1998]

Labour holds onto Swansea in Wales, Plaid Cymru has now overtaken the Lib Dems for 4th place in total Councillors in Wales.

Labour managed to increase their majority in Swansea.

[Clyde1998]

Wales (626/1,254)
Lab - 292 (-75)
Ind - 159 (+43)
Con - 100 (+35)
Plaid - 42 (+12)
Lib - 33 (-13)
Oth - 0 (N/C)
UKIP - 0 (-2)

England (647/2,370)
Con - 433 (+105)
Lib - 101 (-9)
Lab - 68 (-45)
Ind - 34 (-15)
Grn - 10 (+5)
Oth - 1 (-2)
UKIP - 0 (-39)

[Clyde1998]

Projected national vote share
Con - 38 (+13 on 2013)
Lab - 27 (-2)
Lib - 18 (+4)
UKIP - 5 (-18)
Oth - 12 (+3)

[Clyde1998]

Laura Kuenssberg‏Verified account @bbclaurak  2m2 minutes ago
More
 Labour sources now predicting SNP wont get overall majority at Glasgow Council

Not a surprise given the STV system.

[Clyde1998]

Lancashire (CON gain from LAB):

Conservative 46 (+11)
Labour 30 (-10)
Liberal Democrat 4 (-1)
Independent 2 (-1)
Green 1 (=)
UKIP 1 (+1)

UKIP's only win of the election?

And it's a gain. I wonder which ward that was.

[Clyde1998]

Lancashire (CON gain from LAB):

Conservative 46 (+11)
Labour 30 (-10)
Liberal Democrat 4 (-1)
Independent 2 (-1)
Green 1 (=)
UKIP 1 (+1)

UKIP's only win of the election?

And it's a gain. I wonder which ward that was.

Padiham & Burnley West apparently: http://www3.lancashire.gov.uk/elections/results/2017/divres.asp?div=1206&p=d

I love how the Conservative candidate was called Ivor Emo...

@NCPoliticsUK: UKIP wins first 2017 seat in former BNP heartland of Burnley. UKIP now tied with the Cornish nationalists for 8th largest party in England.

That explains it...

[Clyde1998]

I'm looking forward to a slew of Tory-Labour coalitions in Scotland where they can yell 'No more referendum' and then have nothing else to do for five years.

Nearly every council in Scotland is going to be a Better Together coalition. I wonder how well local government is going to work in the next five years in Scotland...

[Clyde1998]

@nickeardleybbc: Labour sources still think they'll finish ahead of Tories Scotland-wide

[Clyde1998]

The SNP are the largest party in Edinburgh, so it's looking very likely that the SNP will be the largest party in each of Scotland's four city councils.

[Clyde1998]

@nickeardleybbc: Labour sources still think they'll finish ahead of Tories Scotland-wide

In terms of seats or first preference vote share ?

Doesn't specify; I'm guessing first preferences - as seat wise, I can't see Labour getting more than the Tories now.

[Clyde1998]

@nickeardleybbc: Labour sources still think they'll finish ahead of Tories Scotland-wide

In terms of seats or first preference vote share ?

Doesn't specify; I'm guessing first preferences - as seat wise, I can't see Labour getting more than the Tories now.

Yep, that is why I asked the question.  If this is the case then this is another sign of anti-SNP tactical voting at play.

It will be very interesting to see how Labour voter's second preferences fall, as it could give a clue to how tactical voting could happen in June's election in Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh Council
SNP - 19 (-2)
Con - 18 (+7)
Lab - 12 (-9)
Grn - 8 (+1)
Lib - 6 (+3)

[Clyde1998]

Sky News Commons Projection
Con - 349 (+19)
Lab - 215 (-17)
SNP - 54 (-2)
Lib - 9 (+1)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 23 (N/C)
Maj - 48

[Clyde1998]

@ everyone here who keeps insisting that every council in Scotland will now be governed by pan-unionist anti-SNP coalitions:

that's just hyperbole, right? Is there any reason to assume existing SNP+Labour and SNP+Tory coalitions will suddenly break down? Also why assume they would't be viable elsewhere? Is this something that the parties specifically campaigned on, or something?

The SNP has ruled out going into coalition with the Tories anywhere. I don't know about any other party.

[Clyde1998]

Wales (after 22/22 councils)
Lab - 472 (-107)
Ind - 322 (+11)
Plaid - 202 (+35)
Con - 184 (+80)
Lib - 62 (-11)
Oth - 6 (-7)
Grn - 1 (+1)
UKIP - 0 (-2)

[Clyde1998]

Conservatives WIN West Midlands Mayor

[Clyde1998]

The SNP are going to be short of a majority in Glasgow - and will require Green support to govern. Every mainland seat in Scotland is now under No Overall Control; only the three island councils have a majority - and they're all independent councils.