Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Clyde1998]

I think it's increasingly likely that Scotland will not necessarily join the EU if they leave, but join EFTA instead.

Aye. It's likely that EFTA will be most likely destination for a post-indy Scotland in the short term - as it would require much less negotiations and would give Scotland an easy route into the EEA while any application to join the EU as a full member is processed.

[Clyde1998]

Hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

Just leaving this here: https://www.ft.com/content/391f0114-17a1-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

[Clyde1998]

Hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

Just leaving this here: https://www.ft.com/content/391f0114-17a1-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

Using force to prevent Gibraltar from being removed from British rule against its will (and when support for British rule is not just a majority but nearly unanimous) seems quite different from using force to stop Scotland from leaving the UK after a majority of Scotland has voted for independence.

If they'd use force against another NATO member, why wouldn't they use force against Scotland in the event of a Unilateral Declaration of Independence?

[Clyde1998]

Hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

Just leaving this here: https://www.ft.com/content/391f0114-17a1-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

Using force to prevent Gibraltar from being removed from British rule against its will (and when support for British rule is not just a majority but nearly unanimous) seems quite different from using force to stop Scotland from leaving the UK after a majority of Scotland has voted for independence.

If they'd use force against another NATO member, why wouldn't they use force against Scotland in the event of a Unilateral Declaration of Independence?

They would be unlikely to use military force. But they could use economic force. Remember, the Scottish government has no source of revenue except that provided by London. In the event that was cutoff, the Scottish government would come to a halt, as Spain, whatever its views on independence for Scotland, would almost certainly oppose unilateral declarations of independence by regional legislatures with constitutional authority to do so. Scotland would be unable to even borrow money when faced with a hostile UK, not to mention a United States which would take Britain's side in an instant when one considers the history between Donald Trump and the SNP. Who would lend to them? How would they pay salaries? Scotland is barely viable independent state even with a reluctantly cooperative UK bending over backwards to give them a favorable departure. With the Bank of England, the English NHS, and the Border Agency refusing to recognize the legal existence of the Scottish government or any of its officials, and refusing to cash its checks the whole thing would descend into farce.

The Scottish government would have no resources, no money, and no friends outside maybe Guy Verhodstadt in such a scenario. It would have at least two security council vetoes of any applications for UN membership or to join any international bodies(the US and UK, and it is up in the air if Russia and China would let a desire to cause chaos override principles which dictate they would be hostile). It would cause untold problems for the EU, and Merkel, Tusk, and everyone else would blame Sturgeon for making their lives complicated for no reason greater than delusional self-importance.

The impact of the economic force would depend on how quickly Scotland declared a UDI; if time was taken to set up the independent bodies necessary before declaring independence, it could greatly reduce the impact - mainly if the Scottish Government could quickly redirect tax revenues to Holyrood than than Westminster. Although, IMO, economic sanctions would be an acceptance of Scottish independence, rather than opposition, per se, as it would only reinforce that Scotland is separate from the rest of the United Kingdom.

In terms of international stand points, it would depend on the context of how a mandate, if any, for independence was achieved. If it was after a, non-UK sanctioned, referendum on a high turnout that went 'Yes' then international leaders may be more sympathetic to Scotland's position than if the Scottish Parliament just turned around and said "we're independent" without any solid mandate.

The EU probably would be more accommodating than the US, although there would be no chance of membership in the short term (at least), as Scotland reaffirmed it's desire to remain in the EU in June last year. Depending on the timing of a UDI, it could affect the Brexit negotiations. Getting the support of the EU would be more important than the support of the US for economic reasons - Scotland does about three times the amount of trade with the EU than the US.

In terms of public services, the Scottish NHS has always been separate from the English NHS. Additionally, as everyone living in Scotland, who are currently so, would remain British citizens, the Border agency wouldn't be able to "contain" Scots unless citizenship was stripped. The Russians would probably recognise Scottish independence in any context.

Obviously, we're talking about a very unlikely scenario and the worst scenario for all parties - at the worst I can see the UK Government saying "we're not going to negotiate anything, but Scotland's independent" if there is some sort of solid mandate for independence.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov poll (24-27 Apr):

Thinking about the upcoming general election, how important is a political party's stance on whether Scotland should be an independent country to your decision to vote for them?

• I could only vote for a party that wants Scotland to be an independent country - 18% (40% Yes; 2% No)
• I would prefer to vote for a party that wants Scotland to be an independent country, but it is not essential to my decision - 18% (35% Yes, 5% No)
• It does not make a difference to my decision to vote for a party whether they want Scotland to be independent or stay in the UK - 13% (12% Yes, 13% No)
• I would prefer to vote for a party that wants Scotland to stay in the UK, but it is not essential to my decision to vote - 15% (5% Yes; 25% No)
• I could only vote for a party that wants Scotland to stay in the UK - 27% (3% Yes; 50% No)

And, as far as you are aware, what is the official policy for each of the following parties on whether Scotland should be an independent country or stay in the UK?

• Labour - Independence - 3%; Union - 68%; Doesn't have one - 5%; Don't Know - 23%
• SNP - Independence - 88%; Union - 2%; Doesn't have one - 1%; Don't Know - 8%
• Conservatives - Independence - 1%; Union - 81%; Doesn't have one - 2%; Don't Know - 16%
• Lib Dem - Independence - 3%; Union - 56%; Doesn't have one - 8%; Don't Know - 33%
• Greens - Independence - 48%; Union - 12%; Doesn't have one - 8%; Don't Know - 31%

If you are in a constituency in which your preferred party has little chance of winning, which are you most likely to do?

• Vote for my preferred party anyway - 51% (43% of 2015 Con, 47% Lab; 37% Lib; 65% SNP)
• Vote for the party most likely to stop the Conservatives even if it's not my preferred party - 14%  (2% Con, 15% Lab; 9% Lib; 18% SNP)
• Vote for the party most likely to stop the SNP even if it's not my preferred party - 17% (43% Con, 27% Lab, 47% Lib, 5% SNP)
• Vote for the party most likely to stop the Labour even if it's not my preferred party - 2% (2% Con, 1% Lab, 0% Lib, 1% SNP)
• Vote in some other way - 2% (5% Con, 1% Lab, 0% Lib, 2% SNP)
• Not vote at all - 6% (1% Con, 1% Lab, 1% Lib, 4% SNP)
• Don't Know - 8% (4% Con, 8% Lab, 5% Lib, 5% SNP)