United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Clyde1998]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

I live in England, and the only things that get reported in the London media is negative to the SNP [and the overall independence movement]; there's very little positive about them. So it's not particularity going down well in England. Although, it won't be used as a campaigning point for the Remain campaign, as I feel more people would move to Leave than move to Remain (if there's any movement at all).

In Scotland, Panelbase polled on a question of: "If a majority of people in the UK voted for the UK to leave the EU, would you support another referendum being held on Scottish independence?". 47% said Yes; 40% No; 13% didn't know. So there is support for the SNP's stance in Scotland; even 20% of those who voted No in the referendum said there should be a second referendum in that situation.

It would be funny, if this turns out to be the real Scottish Independence referendum

BTW, could this destabilise NI? With UK out f EU it is hard to see how the proper controls on the border with the Republic could be avoided, at the very least. That is bound to have an impact.

It will be interesting to see what happens there, if the UK votes to leave. There could be an impact to the Good Friday Agreement, as it presently sits, as well in that case.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov "EU Membership Referendum Map of Britain". Scotland is indistinguishable from the rest of the UK...

[Clyde1998]

[Clyde1998]

TNS Face-To-Face Poll (Scotland; 1-24 April):
Remain 48% (-3)
Leave 21% (+2)
Don't Know 31% (+2)

Excluding Don't Knows
Remain 70% (-3)
Leave 30% (+3)

Certain/Likely to vote: 85%

[Clyde1998]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

[Clyde1998]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

and Leave.EU are kicking up a fuss because its not their man Gove.

Speaking of; I've just had a Leave ad come up on a mobile game, urgh, and I'm yet to see a single Remain advert anywhere.

I'm off to the pictures in a bit though, are the main cinema chains declining to show any ads for either side like they (belatedly) decided in the Scottish referendum

I hope they're not going to show any - they shouldn't be showing any political adverts at any time in cinemas.
We're going to have a Farage-Sturgeon debate on BBC 1; 26th May; 8pm - as well. Held in Glasgow, but apparently the audience will be representative of the whole UK - not Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

I'm surprised that Clackmannanshire aren't higher on that list; I'm sure that they declared before half midnight for the independence referendum.

We also need to add Gibraltar to that list; they're apparently predicting a 2am local time declaration; that would be 1am BST I think

Clackmann declared at around 1:30am - but it will probably be the first result from Scotland, turnout dependent.

[Clyde1998]

I'll predict:

Remain - 49%
Leave - 51%

Turnout - 75%

[Clyde1998]

Balls to the wall prediction: 64% Remain

That would require a pretty sizeable shift in turnout patterns across the country. But I guess it's possible.

[Clyde1998]

Sky are suggesting that a UKIP private poll is showing 52-48 to Leave, but they're sceptical whether it actually does show that.

[Clyde1998]

@RadioClydeNews: Counting Officer's spokesman says turnout in #Glasgow for #EUref was around 24% by mid afternoon. Apparently "quite high".

[Clyde1998]

I'm guessing typo

I hope it's a typo - although a number of people on Twitter are suggesting that their polling station ended up at around 35-40% turnout (Central Glasgow). Scotland may have a much lower turnout than expected, if ture.

[Clyde1998]

I'm guessing typo

I hope it's a typo - although a number of people on Twitter are suggesting that their polling station ended up at around 35-40% turnout (Central Glasgow). Scotland may have a much lower turnout than expected, if ture.

That just makes no sense to me? How can england have 75%+ turnout and scotland have 40%??

Glasgow tends to be around 10-15% lower than the Scottish average. Scotland could be 50-60% turnout, if these figures turnout to be final. It'll be a few hours before we know though.

[Clyde1998]

Early counting of postal votes in Sunderland suggest a 60/40 split to Leave.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746098795054833668

Didn't someone post a link stating Sunderland should lean around 6 points towards leave?

I'm expecting postal votes to be more in favour of leaving than the on the day votes - so it may not be indicative of how Sunderland as a whole will vote.

[Clyde1998]

Kettering turnout: 76.4% (+9.1% on 2015 election)

[Clyde1998]

Kettering turnout: 76.4% (+9.1% on 2015 election)

is that a leave or remain area?

I think Kettering will be relatively close to the national result, possibly more towards remain.

[Clyde1998]

DECLARATION IMMINENT IN GIBRALTAR

If it's not 95%+ Remain, then Leave have done well.

[Clyde1998]

DECELERATION IMMINENT IN GIBRALTAR

If it's not 95%+ Remain, then Leave have done well.

Have they accelerated previously?

Just noticed my typo.

[Clyde1998]

Apparently, the postal vote is 3:1 Remain in Edinburgh.

[Clyde1998]

GIBRALTAR
Remain - 19,322 (95.91%)
Leave - 823

[Clyde1998]

Pound's plummeting against the Dollar at the moment.

[Clyde1998]

LOL, BBC website considers Gibraltar part of England.

It's counted as part of the South West of England for electoral purposes in European elections.

[Clyde1998]

I think people need to post whether a given result is good for leave or remain. As a layman I have no clue whether 60% leave in some Welsh place means anything substantial.

Wales should be relatively similar to England (albeit slightly more in favour of remain)

[Clyde1998]

NEWCASTLE (NORTH EAST)
Remain - 65,404
Leave - 63,598

[Clyde1998]

ORKNEY (SCOTLAND)
Remain - 7,189
Leave - 4,193