Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Clyde1998]

Independence
Yes - 43% (-2%)
No - 51% (+2%)
DK - 7% (+1%)

This is outside of YouGov's normal range since the referendum, so it could be a blip, or they've picked up an actual decline in independence support.

EU Membership
Remain - 55% (+4%)
Leave - 28% (-3%)
DK - 18% (+2%)

Around 2:1 majority for the Remain side at this stage, although the actual campaign would probably affect these figures.

Approval Ratings
David Cameron (Con) - Good 29%; Bad 64%; Net -35%
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) - Good 61%; Bad 31%; Net +30%
Kezia Dugdale (Lab) - Good 26%; Bad 44%; Net -18%
Ruth Davidson (Con) - Good 40%; Bad 36%; Net +4%

[Clyde1998]

How well or badly do you think the current Scottish government is handling the issue of...
Education/Schools - Good 51%; Bad 36%; Net +15%
Justice - Good 47%; Bad 39%; Net +8%
Economy - Good 47%; Bad 42%; Net +5%
NHS - Good 48%; Bad 44%; Net +4%
Police* - Good 40%; Bad 50%; Net -10%

*Question regarding Police was "And thinking about Police Scotland, do you think they are currently doing well or badly?"

The Scottish Government is expected to have full control over income tax by 2017. Would you support or oppose the following?
Increase rate of income tax, use money to improve public services - Support 53%; Oppose 37%; Net +17%
Increase rate of income tax, use money to increase benefits and tax credits - Support 26%; Oppose 62%; Net -26%
Cut rate of income tax, fund by reducing the money spent on public services -  Support 12%; Oppose 76%; Net -64%
Cut rate of income tax, fund by cutting benefits and tax credits - Support 27%; Oppose 62%; Net -35%

All things considered, do you think Scotland should accept more or fewer refugees than it is currently or is the number about right?
More - 24%
Fewer - 41%
About Right - 26%
Don't Know - 9%

Although responsibility for setting council tax levels rests with local authorities in Scotland, the Scottish Government has worked with authorities to freeze council tax since 2007. Do you think the Scottish Government should or should not have power to freeze council tax?
Should have power - 63%
Should not have power - 24%
Don't Know - 13%

Would you support or oppose the following?
Increase rate of council tax, use the money to improve local services - Support 54%; Oppose 36%; Net +18%
Cut rate of council tax, funded by reducing the money spent on local services - Support 12%; Oppose 73%; Net -61%

[Clyde1998]

Ipsos Mori/STV Poll:
Constituency ballot:
SNP 53% (+3)
Lab 20% (n/c)
Con 16% (-2)
Lib 6% (-1)

Regional list:
SNP 49% (+3)
Lab 19% (n/c)
Con 15% (-1)
Lib 8% (n/c)
Grn 6% (-1)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 52.1% (-2.8)
No 47.9% (+2.8)

Imagine that the UK as a whole votes to leave the European Union in the referendum when voters in Scotland vote to remain in the European Union.  If this led to another Scottish independence referendum being held, how would you vote in response to the question ''Should Scotland be an independent country''?
Yes 57.7%
No 42.3%

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 62% (-3)
Leave 26% (+4)
DK 12% (-1)

UK-wide
Remain 55% (-3)
Leave 36% (+4)
DK 9% (-1)

[Clyde1998]

TNS Poll:
Constituency: SNP 60% (+3), Lab 21% (±0), Con 13% (-4), Lib 4% (+1)
Regional: SNP 55% (+3), Lab 21% (+2), Con 13% (-4), Lib 4% (-2), Grn 6% (±0)

Survation Poll:
Constituency: SNP 54% (+1), Lab 21% (-1), Con 16% (n/c), Lib 5% (-1)
Regional: SNP 43% (-2), Lab 19% (+1), Con 14% (-1), Grn 9% (±0), Lib 7% (+1), UKIP 6% (±0)

Survation's Regional Vote Question has been criticized by John Curtice for making it sound like it's a second preference vote: "Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your second, regional list vote?"

[Clyde1998]

Vote Match thingy

http://www.scotvote16.com/#!/

Quite good because it, rightly, placed a lot of focus on constitutional issues.

Be sure to check out the drop down 'matrix', as it measures not only social-economic issues but constitutional issues v social/economic ones.

I got:
SNP 66
Grn 60
Lab 20
Lib 18
Con -34
UKIP -45

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (7-11 Apr):
SNP 50/45 (+5/+1 on 2011)
Lab 21/19 (-11/-7)
Con 19/18 (+5/+6)
Lib 5/5 (-3/NC)
Grn -/8 (-/+4)
UKIP -/3 (-/+2)
RISE -/1 (-/+1)

Panelbase (6-15 Apr):
SNP 51/47 (+6/+3 on 2011)
Lab 19/18 (-13/-8)
Con 18/19 (+4/+7)
Lib 5/4 (-3/-1)
Grn -/8 (-/+4)
UKIP -/3 (-/+2)
RISE -/1 (-/+1)

BMG (11-15 Apr):
SNP 53/46 (+8/+2 on 2011)
Lab 21/20 (-11/-6)
Con 16/16 (+2/+4)
Lib 6/6 (-2/+1)
Grn -/7 (-/+3)
UKIP -/4 (-/+3)
RISE -/0 (-/NC)

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 52.5/46.3 (+7.1/+2.3)
Lab 20.2/19.3 (-11.5/-7.0)
Con 16.7/16.5 (+2.8/+4.1)
Lib 5.7/6.0 (-2.2/+0.8)
Grn -/7.8 (-/+3.4)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/+1.8)
RISE -/0.8 (-/+0.4)

[Clyde1998]

For the record, this is a Survation poll for the Daily Record.

In terms of seats, the ScotlandVotes calculator suggests:
SNP - 70 (+1)
Con - 21 (+6)
Lab - 20 (-17)
Grn - 12 (+10)
Lib - 6 (+1)
Oth - 0 (-1)

Oddly, the Cutbot calculator shows the Greens winning constituency seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh...

[Clyde1998]

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 53.0/46.2 (+0.5/-0.1 compared to last polling average)
Lab 19.7/19.0 (-0.5/-0.3)
Con 16.8/16.8 (+0.1/+0.3)
Lib 5.8/6.0 (+0.1/NC)
Grn -/8.0 (-/+0.2)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/NC)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

[Clyde1998]

Oddly, the Cutbot calculator shows the Greens winning constituency seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh...

we really ought to start standing in constituency seats, if we're hitting 8 to 10% then we'll be saving enough deposits.  not in Wales yet though, maybe Cardiff and Ceredigion.

I think Patrick Harvie said that this will probably be the last election where the Greens don't stand in most constituencies. It will be very interesting to see the difference between the constituency and list vote for the Greens in the three constituencies that they are standing in.

The Greens have a constituency candidates in Kelvin, where they came 3rd on the list last time, Edinburgh Central, where they came 4th last time (coming within 1,500 votes of coming 2nd) and Coatbridge (the candidate being John Wilson, who came 2nd with the SNP in 2011).

Using the 2011 List Vote as a guide to show how may deposits each party would retain if all parties stood in each constituency (although, obviously, people don't always vote the same way on each ballot):
SNP - 73
Lab - 73
Con - 66
Lib - 22
Grn - 19

Given that the Greens are on, likely, double what they got in 2011, the case can be made that the Greens probably should stand constituency candidates, even if they do lose a couple of deposits here and there.

[Clyde1998]

I think that the strategy this time seems to be sound: focus on the list except in the places where we have a shot of winning.  Those three seats are probably the best for the Greens in the country (Coatbridge only because of the candidate really; the other two are city seats with very large student votes: a good thing for the Greens).  I think that Pat comes close in Kelvin; there's lots of enthusiasm there and he's one of the more popular politicians in Scotland - probably the most popular outside of the SNP - and he's standing in a seat where the Greens should be able to pick up a decent number of votes.  I'm not willing to say about Edinburgh Central because I've not been there: in Coatbridge I think that third is probably the best that we'd manage: the SNP will win and Labour will finish second unless something odd happens.

It probably doesn't actually matter if we win a constituency in terms of our total representation: it might make it easier to get a second Glasgow seat on the list but I did the maths on that a while back and it was negligible (about half a percent I think).  It'd be of huge symbolic value though, and that's a good thing!

One thing that I'd like them to consider before they start standing constituency seats more often is whether people are sure about what both votes mean exactly: I've met people that think that you can't vote for the same party on both bits of the ballot paper and that the second vote is a second preference of some kind - although "Both Votes SNP" might help to shake this slightly.  I wouldn't want people to vote Green on the constituency ballot and think that they can't on the list, which is where we really need all the votes that we can...

What was interesting in 2011 is that the polls showed the SNP 7% lower on the list than the constituency vote, but when polling day came - they were only 1% lower on the list than they were on constituency vote. The only downside to the Greens not running in both ballots is that people may decide to vote for a single party (ie. same party on both constituency and list votes), but would vote Green in both if they ran a candidate in their constituency.

You need (roughly) 10/11% in a region to win two seats in that region - I would think that Glasgow would be strong for the Greens on the list, so I think they should win two seats there.

[Clyde1998]

Survation Net Favourably Ratings (Excluding Don't Knows)
Nicola Sturgeon +24% (3% don't know)
Patrick Harvie -3% (36% DK)
Ruth Davidson -12% (22% DK)
Willie Rennie -13% (12% DK)
Jeremy Corbyn -15% (19% DK)
Kezia Dugdale -16% (6% DK)
Tim Farron -24% (39% DK)
David Cameron -47% (2% DK)

Survation Trust on EU (Excluding Don't Knows)
Nicola Sturgeon +18% (3% DK)
Jeremy Corbyn -13% (5% DK)
Gordon Brown -14% (3% DK)
Boris Johnson -24% (3% DK)
Alistair Darling -25% (7% DK)
Tim Farron -27% (33% DK)
David Cameron -44% (2% DK)
Nigel Farage -49% (5% DK)

[Clyde1998]

Following the aforementioned Ipsos Mori poll:

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 52.3/45.5 (-0.7/-0.7 compared to last polling average)
Lab 19.5/18.7 (-0.2/-0.3)
Con 17.2/17.5 (+0.4/+0.7)
Lib 5.8/5.8 (NC/-0.2)
Grn -/8.7 (-/+0.7)
UKIP -/2.7 (-/NC)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 71 (-1 on last average*/+2 on 2011)
Con 22 (+3/+7)
Lab 21 (-3/-16)
Grn 9 (+1/+7)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)

*I didn't post the seat calculation last time.

[Clyde1998]

[Clyde1998]

Come election night I think the Other vote for constituencies will drop much closer to the 1.1% that it was last time and Harvie will take a respectable second place

This. I think a lot of people are saying they'll vote for another party with their constituency vote, but will get to the polling station and release that they can only vote for one of four parties.

TNS Poll (1-24 April)
SNP 52/45 (-4/-2 on last TNS Poll)
Lab 22/22 (+3/+1)
Con 17/18 (+2/+3)
Lib 7/5 (+1/-1)
Grn -/8 (-/NC)
RISE -/1 (-/-1)
UKIP -/0 (-/-1)

This completes TNS's move in line with other pollsters. As happens with every election in the UK everyone is now showing pretty much the same thing: SNP on around 51-53%, Labour and Conservatives in a close battle for second (with Labour slightly ahead) and the Greens and Lib Dems in a race for fourth (with the Greens slightly ahead).

It's worth noting that the early data from TNS's poll is from nearly a month ago.

[Clyde1998]

Following the aforementioned TNS poll:

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 51.7/45.2 (-0.7/-0.3 on last average)
Lab 20.0/18.8 (+0.5/+0.2)
Con 17.5/18.0 (+0.3/+0.5)
Lib 6.0/5.7 (+0.2/-0.2)
Grn -/8.7 (-/NC)
UKIP -/2.5 (-/-0.2)
RISE -/0.6 (-/-0.2)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (-1 on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (+1/+87)
Lab 21 (NC/-16)
Grn 9 (NC/+7)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase/Sunday Times (23-28 Apr)
SNP 49/44 (-2/-3)
Lab 23/22 (+4/+3)
Con 17/19 (-1/NC)
Lib 6/4 (+1/NC)
Grn 3/6 (-1/-2)
UKIP -/3 (-/NC)
RISE -/2 (-/+1)

Very interesting...

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 51.3/44.7 (-0.4/-0.5 on last average)
Lab 20.7/19.5 (+0.7/+0.7)
Con 17.3/18.0 (-0.2/NC)
Lib 6.2/5.7 (+0.2/NC)
Grn -/8.3 (-/-0.4)
UKIP -/2.6 (-/+0.1)
RISE -/0.8 (-/+0.2)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (NC/+8)
Lab 22 (+1/-15)
Grn 8 (-1/+6)
Lib 6 (NC/+1)

[Clyde1998]

If that was the case then why is UKIP making inroads in Wales and not Scotland?

Because Wales isn't Scotland. Amongst other things (and there are a lot of things) it is integrated (socially, economically, culturally etc) with England to an infinitely greater extent and while it does have a nationalist party it doesn't have one that's a massive catch-all affair that polled 50% of the vote in a General Election.

National Identity: English Only (2011 Census)
Scotland - 2.3%
Wales - 11.2%

There are more people in Wales who would associate with England than there would be in Scotland. Wales seems somewhat less detached from London politics than Wales, as a result - hence why UKIP are able to do as well as they are in Wales.

[Clyde1998]

Survation/Daily Record Telephone Poll (1-2 May)
SNP 49/44 (-4/+1)
Lab 21/19 (+3/+2)
Con 19/20 (+2/+2)
Lib 7/6 (NC/+1)
Grn -/7 (-/-4)
UKIP -/2 (-/-2)

It's important to note that Survation haven't, to my knowledge, conducted a telephone poll for this election before. The changes are compared to the previous Survation online opinion poll and, therefore, should be taken with caution.

What is interesting is this is the third poll this year to show the SNP below 50% on the constituency ballot, and the second in the space of 48 hours.

EDIT: Additionally, Survation have changed the wording of the list vote question from Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your second, regional list vote? to Your other vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your regional list vote? - which would explain the rise in the SNP, Labour and Conservative list vote, as some people may have thought previously that they were being asked about a second preference vote.

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 50.7/44.8 (-0.7/+0.2 on last average)
Lab 21.2/19.8 (+0.5/+0.3)
Con 17.7/18.3 (+0.3/+0.3)
Lib 6.2/5.5 (NC/-0.2)
Grn -/7.7 (-/-0.7)
UKIP -/2.3 (-/-0.3)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Lab 24 (+2/-13)
Con 24 (+1/+9)
Grn 7 (-1/+5)
Lib 4 (-2/-1)

[Clyde1998]

Also worth noting that 78% in that poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote....which suggests that turnout could be over 60%, by far a record for the Scottish Parliament.

The TNS poll suggested around 65% would vote - which is probably the most accurate figure we are going to get pre-election given that TNS conduct their polls face-to-face. It'll be up 15% if that's the case.

TNS showed the EU membership referendum turnout to be heading towards 85%, as well, in Scotland. That would be touch and go for beating the independence referendum turnout...

[Clyde1998]

YouGov Poll (2-4 May)
SNP 48/41 (-2/-4)
Lab 22/19 (+1/NC)
Con 19/20 (+1/+2)
Lib 7/6 (+2/+1)
Grn 2/9 (-1/+1)
UKIP 2/4 (NC/+1)
RISE 0/1 (NC/NC)

Average of most recent YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Survation, Ipsos Mori and TNS Polls
SNP 50.3/44.2 (-0.3/-0.7 on last average)
Lab 21.3/19.8 (+0.2/NC)
Con 17.7/18.7 (NC/+0.3)
Lib 6.5/5.7 (+0.3/+0.2)
Grn -/7.8 (-/+0.2)
UKIP -/2.4 (-/+0.2)
RISE -/0.8 (-/NC)

ScotlandVotes Seat Calculation:
SNP 70 (NC on last average/+1 on 2011)
Con 23 (-1/+8)
Lab 22 (-2/-15)
Grn 8 (+1/+6)
Lib 6 (+2/+1)

[Clyde1998]

YouGov
Independence: Yes 41; No 48; WNV 3; DK 9 (Yes 46; No 54)
EU Membership: Remain 49; Leave 32; WNV 4; DK 15 (Remain 61; Leave 39)

Approval Ratings:
Sturgeon +26
Davidson +8
Dugdale -18
Corbyn -32
Cameron -42

Government Approval:
Overall +7
Justice +10
NHS +9
Education +7
Economy +7
Police -7

Thinking back over the election campaign, do you think <Party>'s election campaign has been mostly positive, or mostly negative? (Net Positive)
SNP +22
Con -13
Lab -16

And do you think <Party> election campaign has been mostly honest, or mostly dishonest? (Net Honest)
SNP +12
Lab -2
Con -7

Which of the following do you think should be the main priorities for the next Scottish government? Please tick up to three.
Improving Health Service - 51
Boosting the Economy - 43
Creating Jobs - 38
Improving Education/Schools - 35
Fighting UK Gov's Austerity - 23
Providing More Affordable Housing - 23
Reducing Taxes - 13
Reducing Crime - 12
Getting Rid of Trident - 12
Making Case for Independence - 10
Protecting Environment - 8

[Clyde1998]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

[Clyde1998]

I'm going to predict the SNP will lose their majority, but will form minority government.

(I'm an SNP member, btw)

Bear in mind, if the SNP win 65 of the 73 constituencies they have a majority without the list votes even being counted.

I know. I feel that the SNP will fall short in some constituencies and the "tactical voting on the list" will backfire - the SNP may pick up almost no seats on the list.

We'll see though.

[Clyde1998]

Labour will gain my seat of Edinburgh Southern

You may well be right. It is a three-way marginal though (between SNP [29.4% in 2011], Labour [27.4%] & Lib Dem [24.6%]), so any unionist tactical voting could be interesting there.

[Clyde1998]

BBC suggesting that Rutherglen may declare around midnight.