UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Clyde1998]

There wasn't really any way that Sturgeon could lose from these debates, short of a Gerald Ford 1976 style gaffe. The others could only attack her on her desire for independence...which about half of Scots support. The whole "Vote SNP, get the Tories" argument was/is weak and pretty embarassing tbh.

Being involved in these debates will stop Scotland from thinking it's all about Labour and the Tories. The others don't know how to confront the SNP - I saw a poll that suggested that around 50%(ish) of SNP supporters take it as a personal insult to attack the SNP. You're not winning those people back in a hurry.

The SNP vote share may hold up until polling day - it probably wouldn't if they hadn't been involved.

[Clyde1998]

This is interesting:

% of those asked by voting intentions:
Lab - 32.7%
Con - 25.2%
Ukip - 18.8%
Oth - 9.9%
Und - 8.1%
Lib - 5.2%

Hmm...

[Clyde1998]

Tbh I'm of the opinion that no matter what Ed does, he's not gonna win in scotland. Labour could come out against trident, and bring back clause IV and it wouldn't make a difference. The scots want to feel good about themselves and embrace the SNP.

Ed looked more prime ministerial tonight, real challenge is that most people didn't watch it

Saw this on Facebook:

Ed looked more prime ministerial tonight, real challenge is that most people didn't watch it

Miliband was the only one there tonight, who could become Prime Minister. He had to look like PM material - and I think he did alright.

I think he'll depend on the SNP though...

[Clyde1998]

I thought Miliband's performance was pretty impressive.

Miliband performed well tonight. Compared to Sturgeon, he didn't win the debate for me.

[Clyde1998]

Polls (all online, all released in the last 24 hours or so):

YouGov: Lab 34 Con 34 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
Populus: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 9 SNP 5 Green 4
Panelbase: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 8 SNP 4 Green 4

At least they're all starting to agree with each other now...

[Clyde1998]

Usual health warnings apply.

This is now old news.

I see that now...

[Clyde1998]

If those recent polls that are actually tallying the SNP, then there has been a marked change. At the 2010 general election the SNP won 14.31% of the Others vote (UKIP + Green + Plaid + SNP + Others). According to those recent polls they are winning nearly 21% of the Others vote.

The SNP are listed as a separate entity in the data tables.

However, I should point out that it's possible that SNP support is being downplayed (amazingly), as Ashcroft weights by 2010 voting intentions. Many Scots may get confused between how they voted in 2010 and 2011 - due to the vastly different results. For example, 2010 Labour voters may say they voted SNP, due to voting for them in 2011. The 2010 recalled vote method should work well in England though.

[Clyde1998]

In contemporary British political culture, how much does biggest party status count for when forming a government?

As Jim Murphy keeps saying - the last time that largest party didn't form the Government was 1924. I should point out that we've only had four hung parliaments since universal suffrage (I think) - so it's a 75% success rate for the largest party forming the government in the event of a hung parliament.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

[Clyde1998]

Usual comment

[Clyde1998]

The SNP manifesto also doesn't rule out an Irn Bru tax, the Proclaimers being played every minute on the radio or a price increase for Freddo Frogs. #SNPBetrayal.

I'm starting to wonder if Jim Murphy's (and Scottish Labour's) twitter account is a parody...

[Clyde1998]

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (N/C)
Lab - 25% (N/C)
Con - 17% (-1%)
Lib - 5% (+1%)

[Clyde1998]

John Swinney could absolutely destroyed by Andrew Neil, btw: http://youtu.be/Gl-zTYQzKJM

It wasn't a good interview for Swinney.

[Clyde1998]

John Swinney could absolutely destroyed by Andrew Neil, btw: http://youtu.be/Gl-zTYQzKJM

It wasn't a good interview for Swinney.

Well that's good!  Anything to that hurts the SNP juggernaut in Scotland.

I don't think many people in Scotland watch that program.

[Clyde1998]

The upcoming YouGov poll is being hyped up.

Tories on 38% apparently.

[Clyde1998]

The upcoming YouGov poll is being hyped up.

Tories on 38% apparently.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/590622405162315776

The woozle that wasn't.

Hyped up because it's the first Tory lead with them in a good while.

We'll have to see the next couple of polls by YouGov to confirm the trend. Could this just be margin of error noise?

[Clyde1998]

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

I'm starting to not believe the Scotland polls - I don't think it could be that large an SNP lead...

This poll shows 29% undecided - they could swing back to the party they voted for in 2010 (if they voted in 2010).

Undecided voters - 2010 vote:
Labour - 22%
Lib Dem - 15%
Conservative - 8%
SNP - 6%
Other - 1%
Didn't Vote - 21%
Can't Remember - 27%

If all of them swing back to their 2010 vote - the headline figure would be:
SNP - 42.7%
Lab - 27.3%
Con - 13.7%
Lib - 10.9%
Oth - 5.4%

Don't be surprised to the SNP lead fall, if undecided voters move towards they voted in 2010.

Although undecided voters could just vote for the party that's in the lead going into polling day - so the SNP could still do as well as the polls suggest.

[Clyde1998]

BTW Ashcroft has "Others" at 5% (BNP 1%, other others 4%) in Castle Point, although there are no candidates there other than Con/Lab/UKIP/LD/Green.

This is a worry with some of these polls - they don't take into account who's standing in that area. There's been a few in Scotland where around 5% say they'll vote Green, but the Greens aren't standing there.

[Clyde1998]

Survation/Daily Record
SNP - 51% (+4)
Lab - 26% (NC)
Con - 14% (-2)
Lib - 5% (+1)

[Clyde1998]

The Tories backed by The Sun in England, for stopping the SNP from holding the UK to ransom. The Sun in Scotland endorses the SNP.

Erm...

Not a surprise - the Scottish Sun backed the SNP in the 2011 Scottish election. The paper will endorse the party that looks most likely to win - to minimize loss of sales.

[Clyde1998]

The Sun in Scotland backs whoever the Record doesn't. It's not done it's sales much harm.

Not necessarily - http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140122145147/http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Exhibits-AS-100-123.pdf (Pages 6 & 7)

[Clyde1998]

Labour are going to post these to people in some Scottish constituencies:



AreLabour still trying to convince 'yes' voters to vote Labour or not...?

[Clyde1998]

That would depend on exactly who they were being delivered to, wouldn't it?

It would, but I think it's going to be a mass Royal Mail delivery - as opposed to Canvassers.

[Clyde1998]

You can interpret that quote how ever you like...

[Clyde1998]

Interesting graphic on the Electoral Calculus website about how voting intentions have shifted since the 2010 general election.

Each figure represents 1% of the electorate.

One thing it doesn't seem to show is any migration from the Conservatives to Labour!

What could have possibly happened to make anyone move their ideology so far to vote Conservative to Green?

They don't know what either of the parties stand for?