Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[Clyde1998]

Conor Mac Liam - AAA - 83%
Adrienne Wallace - PBP - 70%
Noel G Walsh - Ind - 63%
Daithí ÓhUallacháin - Ind - 60%
Malcolm Noonan - Grn - 60%
William Quinn - Lab - 57%
Breda Gardner - Ind - 57%
Elizabeth Hourihane - Ind - 55%
Kathleen Funchion - SF - 55%
Bobby Aylward - FF - 48%
Patrick McKee - RI - 38%
David Fitzgerald - FG - 18%

[Clyde1998]

Map based on the tally reports:

[Clyde1998]

RTÉ saying on Twitter that Dublin Northwest is not a confirmed result.

[Clyde1998]

Does it usually take this long to get a result in Ireland?

[Clyde1998]

Dublin West
Yes - 29,665 (71%)
No - 12,229 (29%)

[Clyde1998]

The Presidential Age referendum is likely to be a 'no' vote.

[Clyde1998]

Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6

Is that a Fianna Fáil gain?

[Clyde1998]

Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6

Is that a Fianna Fáil gain?

Well it go transfers but it would be, yes, if it holds to be case. (Given the gap, I would say it is quite likely).

I forgot about transfers...

[Clyde1998]

Sligo-North Leitrim
Yes - 19,043 (53.6%)
No - 16,502 (46.4%)

Waterford
Yes - 28,313 (60.3%)
No - 18,620 (39.7%)

[Clyde1998]

Wicklow
Yes - 44,059 (68.4%)
No - 20,384 (31.6%)

[Clyde1998]

Overall Result (3/43)
Yes - 91,415 (62.2%)
No - 55,506 (37.8%)

[Clyde1998]

Why are the areas around Northern Ireland more likely to vote against same-sex marriage?

[Clyde1998]

Overall Result (34/43)
Yes - 964,616 (61.7%)
No - 599,505 (38.3%)
Turnout - 1,575,489 (60.3%)

[Clyde1998]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

Undecided voters are likely to swing back to the Status Quo on the day.

How many undecided voters were there in the polls?