Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread

[Roronoa D. Law]

I want to know what is Biden going to say during a debate that's going make him collapse. Not every Democratic voter is Cynthia Nixon.

[Roronoa D. Law]

One question: why do some people assume that Biden is good for bringing WWC voters back?

WWC? Maybe in PA and few pockets in SW Wisconsin. A Biden candidacy will mostly play to suburbanites who just want experience so we can go back to normal.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This thread is increasingly becoming petty and desperate.

[Roronoa D. Law]

You know Biden is ahead in another poll when people come responding to the thread with same old hate again.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I admit he really knocked out the park with this video.

[Roronoa D. Law]

While I respect him for at least acknowledging the issue I thought it was quite minimising e.g. 'I was just trying to make a human connection', 'they were reaching out to me for solace and comfort', 'politics shouldn't be cold', 'social norms have changed', 'I've worked my whole life to empower women'.

It would have been far better if he had said 'I'm sorry, I've sometimes behaved inappropriately. I recognise that I've made men and women feel uncomfortable and I believe in admitting and learning from my mistakes.'

He said this in the video watch the whole thing.

[Roronoa D. Law]

OK to be fair, he did go as far as to say that he made them feel uncomfortable. But he wasn't very direct in admitting he had done wrong and apologising for it, suggesting that he was simply misinterpreted or that times had changed and it was acceptable behaviour at some point.

I don't know how direct you can get. What Biden did isn't sexual assault or malintent. While he did make the women feel uncomfortable. Personally, I don't believe making someone feel uncomfortable is a disqualifying factor and I don't believe that the Democrats can uphold that standard. You can have your difference about Biden on political matters but don't start something you can't keep up for when it doesn't benefit you.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Three more women have spoken out. Now up to 7.

https://nypost.com/2019/04/03/joe-biden-accused-by-3-more-women-putting-total-to-7/

This is really starting to do more harm than good to other victims of sexual harassment and sexual assault. Especially this quote right here.

"Someone printed her the photo of that moment, which Karasek framed and put on a shelf, but later took it down as the #MeToo movement began drawing more attention to cases of sexual harassment, assault, and unwanted touching."

[Roronoa D. Law]

Biden has very good cross-over potential. There are some in the GOP who will not vote for the Orange Moron, and if Biden can acquire just a few of them at the polls, it will be huge.
Also shown above are how bad trump is with independents.
I know that staunch GOP/trump supporters fear Biden ... as they should.

Biden appealing to Republicans a year and a half before the election is the worst possible argument for nominating him, because we all know most, if not all, of those will vote Trump anyway. Dems need to focus on somebody who will actually turn out the base (which failed to happen in 2016.) If he wins the nomination, then this country is lost because it means that Dems see replacing Trump as the primary endgame, not the starting point. And if they refuse to look beyond 2020 this country deserves as punishment whatever Trump's reelection brings.

What do you mean by endgame? I supporting not just for electoral purposes but I think Biden would be great as President with his level of experience. After Trump, I am tired of having a President that is great for a party during an election but mediocre as a President and have to go through a learning curve because we have got in our heads that winning is more important than actually governing.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Biden has very good cross-over potential. There are some in the GOP who will not vote for the Orange Moron, and if Biden can acquire just a few of them at the polls, it will be huge.
Also shown above are how bad trump is with independents.
I know that staunch GOP/trump supporters fear Biden ... as they should.

Biden appealing to Republicans a year and a half before the election is the worst possible argument for nominating him, because we all know most, if not all, of those will vote Trump anyway. Dems need to focus on somebody who will actually turn out the base (which failed to happen in 2016.) If he wins the nomination, then this country is lost because it means that Dems see replacing Trump as the primary endgame, not the starting point. And if they refuse to look beyond 2020 this country deserves as punishment whatever Trump's reelection brings.

What do you mean by endgame? I supporting not just for electoral purposes but I think Biden would be great as President with his level of experience. After Trump, I am tired of having a President that is great for a party during an election but mediocre as a President and have to go through a learning curve because we have got in our heads that winning is more important than actually governing.

So in effect the Dems should nominate anyone, even if they'll back largely Republican policies as they've done in the past, just because they have experience? What's the point of even having two parties in that case?

You well know Biden is a liberal Democrat. You can cherry pick votes for any candidates in this race and call them a Republican but it doesn't change the fact that there will be little to no difference between a Biden, Harris, Beto, Booker, and any other Democrat presidency. I'll give Sanders his props but I don't see his policy going too far in Congress even with a Democratic majority.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I can find Republicans that support gay marriage and a woman’s right to choose. Joe Biden has a very right wing track record. Let’s wait and see what his platform is before saying there’s no difference between him and the others.

The only thing I’ve seen Joe Biden be ambitious about passing in his time in the Senate is expanding the death penalty and locking up black, brown, and poor youth.

If you going by voting record then why do you support Beto? Beto record is just as, if not more conservative than Biden. Plus Biden was elected during a time Democrats had senate seats in every state in the Confederacy.

Second, what a ludicrous statement I'm pretty sure Biden is not a racist and if he became President isn't going pass some Jim Crow law.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Indeed, and there are Trump supporters out there I know personally who are deliberately inflaming that factionalism in order to help Trump win in 2020.

It's working too from what i've seen so far.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Whether people like it or not Biden has the easiest path to victory. Biden just needs to win the Deep South, Ohio River Valley, and the Acela states to go into the convention with a plurality of delegates excluding super. Pete, Harris, and Beto can't breakout as long as Biden is still in and Sanders can't win if he coalesces the establishment. He currently holds the party hostage and everybody who supports somebody else just wishes he drop dead and go away. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's kind of hard to paint Biden as homophobic after he pushed for gay marriage in the Obama White House and officiated a same-sex wedding with a story from 1972. I'm confused as to what the goal of this story is.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Any Democrat that votes for Biden is no better than a Republican - full stop. When his record comes to light, whomever chooses to continue supporting him is literally no better than a Trump supporter in my book. Even Copmala Harris is better than him.

I could probably hold my nose and vote for the others in the general, but under no circumstances would I ever vote for Biden.

I don't see how voting for Biden makes me any less of a Democrat especially when it's mostly Sanders supporters who join Trump supporters in name calling other Democratic contenders like Creep Joe, Beta O'rourke, or the aforementioned Copmala. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

Glorious news. I think many people underestimating his chances of winning this outright.

[Roronoa D. Law]

https://twitter.com/SherylNYT/status/1121505228942204928

Well, there isn't much else he could do unless he promises to impeach Thomas and even then the accusations against Kavanaugh are worse.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If he wins it fine, but I will be apart of any movement to draft Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris to Primary him in 2024.

I'd be stunned if he would even run for a second term. It seems like he is going for a "unity candidate" feel, and a one-term pledge sounds about right for that.

I doubt he want to. Presidency usually go south in the 2nd term. Nixon, Clinton, Bush, and LBJ if you count him too.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I don't like this Jeb comparison because Biden has far more personality and is way more likable than Jeb or even Hillary have ever been. Jeb and Hillary were both criticized for coming of elitist, reserved, and scripted. Biden has never had that label. Jeb did not lose that race solely because he was the establishment and the Democrats party sure as hell not comparable to the Republican party.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is 2016 all over again, except with Biden as Hillary.

That's my fear.

If anything its 2008 all over. Biden is the front runner, but nowhere near the level Hillary was in 2016. In fact, I'd go so far as to say Biden is not as strong as Hillary was at this point in 2008 either. In 2007-2008, Hillary had a double digit lead until the Iowa Caucus. Biden isnt even ahead by ten points. His lead is tenuous and he has very little room to fall.

If Biden gets attacked as much as Hillary did in 2016, he's not polling well enough to stay in first. Biden needs to win the Iowa Caucus, keep a New Hampshire loss respectable and win huge in South Carolina. If he doesnt do that, he's not going to win. I'm not even sure if he doesnt win Iowa, he'll stay the front runner. Hillay's numbers plummeted after she lost Iowa in 2008. Biden cant afford that.

I think Biden can afford 2nd place victory in IA and NH if he wins SC. The states on Super Tuesday are far more favorable to him especially if the DNC goes into panic mode and Beto and Harris dropout after SC.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Biden's become the frontrunner then I genuinely hope there's something criminally present in his past that comes out ASAP. I'd even take Trump fabricating something as long as it takes him out of the race.

 I can't stress enough how dangerous he is to the long term, because another term of Trump can be managed through congressional power, if worst comes to worst. Biden would do nothing but guarantee somebody unimaginably worse than Trump coming to power in a massive GOP wave in 2024, and there will be no recovering from that.

That sure is a vile comment. Don't wish for other people misfortune it usually comes back to haunt you instead.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Every election we go through this thing where the far left threatens to vote 3rd party in hopes of making the Democrats lose so they will move the party to the left because they don't make up a significant part of the party to nominate somebody they like. It really starting to get old too but at this point, I know truly understand that many Sanders supporters would rather have a Trump win than a Biden landslide because in their eyes a Biden landslide is a giant set back to their goal of changing the party while a Trump win in 2020 will at least allow them to say "I told you so".

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is the man leading with non-white voters:

https://twitter.com/lyftrs/status/1125894701117267973

Go ahead, accuse them of "voting against their own interests." I'm sure that won't backfire.

Backfire for whom? First I'm black, second, I'm just a poster on a message board. Anyway, if they vote for Joe Biden they absolutely will be. Just because he is popular among people who will never bother to do research doesn't mean he isn't racist.

I actually knew you were black. I just dislike it when people tell voters that they're "voting against their own interests," because it's just a smarmy way of telling people that you know what's best for them better than they do. People prioritize different things. Minority voters should not have to be a monolith.

I don't claim to know what's best for anyone, but I know how black people are affected by certain issues disproportionately and I know which candidates I trust to combat said issues. But hey, Biden is probably going to steamroll the competition with black voters. Ultimately Biden's strength is a response to white people voting for Trump and a segment of black voters wanting a WWC palatable candidate because they don't trust white people to "do the right thing".

Count me as one of those black voters because I don't trust them to do the right thing and nothing these past three years has proven otherwise.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Though young liberal activists have gained influence, and visibility on social media, most Democratic voters are over 45 and more moderate. Biden holds a strong initial advantage among them, especially African-Americans, after his eight-year partnership with President Barack Obama.

His advantage is so strong, and the sprawling field so splintered, that Democratic delegate selection rules could give him an additional boost. Candidates must win 15% of the vote to claim delegates from a primary or caucus, which in some cases could shut competitors out.

It's the general election, Wasserman maintains, that presents more daunting problems. There, the Trump campaign's aggressive social media operation could use Biden's past to depress enthusiasm among key constituencies – as Trump and Russian intelligence agents did against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Six in 10 Americans tell NBC News/Wall Street Journal pollsters they feel uneasy about a candidate of 75. That complicates Biden's ability to arouse intense support from young and nonwhite voters, which has become essential to Democratic mobilization.

"Are young, casual Democratic voters going to bring three friends to the polls to vote for Joe Biden as they did for Barack Obama? The answer is probably not," Wasserman reasons, "In reality, I don't think he's one of the more electable Democrats in the race."

Who is? Ideally, Wasserman reasons, a young mainstream liberal from outside Washington who doesn't bear the taint of coastal elitism. Even better, someone whose election would shatter a barrier the way Obama's did.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-battle-but-lose-the-war-to-trump-in-2020.html

Haven't we learned that Dave Wasserman and Cook Political Report does not know how to analyze politics until April of Election Year

I'm sorry I don't believe in this theory that all Democrats electoral problem will be solved by nominating the first (fill in the blank).

[Roronoa D. Law]

Been said that. It's why I'm voting for Trump just to make sure he loses.

I posted something about this earlier. Some on the left care more about having an ideological fight than actually beating Trump. The Sanders supporters are never going to win a primary no matter how many times the establishment lose if their main message is vote for our candidate or we will sabotage you in the general elections.