GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Roronoa D. Law]

How does GA-07 compare to GA-06? Would that seat be as winnable? I'm thinking more for 2018.

GA-07 has more minorities not as educated as 6th though but the Dem candidate usually does better here in congressional race than the 6th.

[Roronoa D. Law]

GA in 2020 should be interesting.

[Roronoa D. Law]

So, does anyone think we're going to get the rest of the county in one massive dump?

Rumor has that all except 27 precinct are done they having trouble uploading them.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Bob Gray's twitter endorsement of Karen Handel included the words "we wish her godspeed". That doesn't sound confidence inspiring.

I mean he called her a career political at every opportunity so I really don't think he cares for her too much.

He complented her Lexus

[Roronoa D. Law]

GA in 2020 should be interesting.

Booker would probably be a great candidate for GA (not that he should be the nominee).

I feel Kamala Harris could do well also...but not as good as Booker so i agree with you there.

I think the slowness of fulton county is another reason all elections should be 100% VBM

I think this is an indicator that younger Dem candidates create the most excitement with base & grassroots (even though there are obvious exceptions like Bernie).

As I've posted before... Every Dem in recent history elected president was younger than 53.5 .... every republican elected president was older than 53.5.

Booker, Castro's, etc (paired with someone like Sherrod Brown as VP)

I guess you could add Gillibrand to that list?

Will be (just) over 53.5 in 2020.

Not with GA 6 and 7 in single digits

[Roronoa D. Law]

I was told that Trump doing poorly here was an anomaly and normal Republicans would DOMINATE, though.

again, more moving of the goal posts.

Like PA, MI, WI, ME-2 are safe D with another Democrat.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Regardless of who wins the runoff the district is not the same anymore.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Runoff is still Toss-Up. Depending if Trump does something stupid.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Some Republicans may be celebrating tonight but this is GA-06. Comstock, Issa, Yoder, Roskam and Walters are sitting at home like

[Roronoa D. Law]

Two months seems like an insanely long period of time between the first round and the runoff.

GOP acting like Trump won't do anything stupid in 2 months. The media said last week was his best week and Ossoff got 48%. Runoff is pure tossup.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

There are 48 district that are more Democratic than this one and 24 need to win the house.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ossoff raised $500K today

The guy is a monster. I'll give him that.

If he wins here, he could be a threat in an open Senate seat down the line.

I was just thinking that. If Republicans really are malicious enough to try to gerrymander him out in either 2018 or 2020, that Perdue's Senate seat is always up for grabs.

Pretty sure the next open seat in GA would be tilt D. I expect GA pull a CO transition in the next decade.

[Roronoa D. Law]

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".

North Carolina and Florida are probably going to remain tossup states in 20 years. But yes, I do concede that Georgia is not a matter of "if," but a matter of "when" with regards to becoming Safe D.

I think FL will remain tossup but NC will start leaning D in the mid 2020s. Once the urban areas are Democratic enough to offset the drop of turnout among African Americans. Specifically the I-95 corridor then it will stop being a tossup and more like VA.

[Roronoa D. Law]

More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure

Pretty sure Democrats would pass a bill to fix that next time they in power.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

What the hell was he thinking?

Did he really want his wife to lose? Did he want to discourage Black people from voting R? I assume so.

There is radio bit similar to this on Kiss 104.1 but doesn't specify a candidate. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

Seeing as this district repeatedly voted for tom price Im not so certain.

Most people in district still don't know who Tom Price is.

[Roronoa D. Law]

To be clear, the 595,000 or so new voters are in all of Georgia, of which the 100+ a day are by Ossoff's campaign.

Trump margin was 211,141 votes.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ossoff is definitely in the lead right now but why nobody talking about Handel. It's like her campaign doesn't exist it is basically well she a Republican + she in Georgia = a Win?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

They also had Trump +5 in Nevada.

I think it just pollster trying to have it both ways.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

I got one and i'm in GA-11

[Roronoa D. Law]

No matter who wins tomorrow let just remember this happen.

GA-6    2012   2016
Fulton  R+25   R+3
Cobb    R+35  R+15
Dekalb R+4     D+19

[Roronoa D. Law]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

Trump is indeed great at heaping out low IQ red meat with a touch of latent racism for the GOP base.

Only could Republican voters believe a guy who is an Emmy nominated Hollywood reality TV star who actively courted celebrities and models

Yawn.

The democratic party's entire existence has devolved into identity politics and 'othering' against people they disagree with. They certainly don't have a platform of ideas anymore.

Hell, 50% of their entire political lexicon now consists of 'racism/sexism/homophobia/xenophobia/transphobia/nazi's!'.

Okay. Whatever.

You just quoted your endorsement of a strategy of divide and rule.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ossoff should win I believe all this narrow Handel lead is just polls try to tightens the race for website clicks and be able say they got right because of margin error. This is not 2016 redux because its GA nobody has to lie that they voting for a Republican.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Tomorrow's forecast calls for rain: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USGA0028:1:US

Doubt weather will have any effect everybody knows how important this race is. Would not be surprised if people line up in Decatur or Cumming trying to vote like in April. Unless an I-85 collapse or if a tractor trailer falls off I-285 onto 400 I doubt people who intended to vote stay home.