What makes states trend right?

[YaBoyNY]

Look at West Virginia or Kentucky over the last 10 or 20 years.  As for where it could next happen, PA, WI, and MN are top contenders in my mind.  ME could become competitive eventually as well.

What would make these places trend more right, exactly? None of them are like Kentucky or West Virginia.

[YaBoyNY]

Look at West Virginia or Kentucky over the last 10 or 20 years.  As for where it could next happen, PA, WI, and MN are top contenders in my mind.  ME could become competitive eventually as well.

What would make these places trend more right, exactly? None of them are like Kentucky or West Virginia.

I ing hate these types of responses, because I'm forced this TRUE albeit lame answer: SOMETHING will cause SOMEWHERE to trend right.  You're being naive if you think every state is at least kind of on its way to becoming a blue state the "cooler" it becomes.  Voters will react and react differently by the decade.  Bush 41 won suburbanites by landslides in '88.  Now they're a swing group.  Rural Southerners were a swing group for a few cycles, now they're solidly Republican.

The current EC map won't last forever, and I'll be shocked if it lasts past 2028.  Something big will happen to spark a change.

I'm not sure why you're getting so worked up over this. Did I or anybody insinuate that the states will always vote the same way forever? Because I certainly don't recall doing so.

I'm asking him why he thinks PA, MN, or WI, or ME even, are going to trend right. I've yet to hear an argument for -why-. I hear "because white people" as an argument all the time, which is flawed for several reasons, and "Republicans will moderate on social issues" and it just begs the question of why they would do that? They're not locked out of the EC, just disadvantaged, and Republican states are again most likely going to be net EV gainers in 2020 anyway.

[YaBoyNY]

First of all, look at Minnesota, a state that was the only state to not vote for Reagan in 1984 (i.e. the bluest in the nation).  Now, it is a bluish-purple state due to certain groups of people (rural whites) becoming much more Republican.  Another group that is starting to do the same is working-class whites, regardless of whether they are from a downtown area or the middle of nowhere, and that could even bring states like Michigan into play.  Demographics and coalitions change all the time, and I while I expect the Deep South to remain solidly Republican for a long time, what states go with it will continue to evolve.

Minnesota is a state where Democrats have a high floor and a low ceiling. There's too many urban whites, unionized whites, and loyal DFL voters, plus the now DFL trending suburbs, that offset whatever rural whites may become more Republican. I also don't see any significant trend of working class urban whites becoming more Republican.

You're absolutely right that demographics and coalitions change over time, so why are you assuming that states like Minnesota and Michigan are going to become more Republican based on Democratic losses amongst the white working class? (Which presents a bigger issue in Appalachia and Western Pennsylvania than urban Minnesota and Michigan, but I digress.)

Currently none while Virginia, Georgia and Arizona trend more toward the Democratic party.

Not true, Pennsylvania has seen a rightward trend over the past 20 years, as has Minnesota and Iowa (maybe even Wisconsin). Before people flip out, the fact is Pennsylvania and Minnesota used to be much more Democratic than the national average than they are now. They still lean Democratic but much less so than 20 or 30 years ago.

Also, Arizona is not trending Democratic and Georgia is only slightly.

This is much closer to the truth. Pennsylvania is going to be a Democratic leaning, but close, state, because the continuing leftward trend in the suburbs and eastern Poconos is about dead even with the rightward trend in the west.

[YaBoyNY]

New Hampshire and Maine aren't becoming pure tossups, neither is Minnesota. Utah and the South Central US aren't going to slip to lean Republican, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin aren't going to become lean Republican from lean Democrat, Ohio isn't going solid Republican, and South Carolina isn't becoming a tossup.

[YaBoyNY]

New Hampshire and Maine aren't becoming pure tossups, neither is Minnesota. Utah and the South Central US aren't going to slip to lean Republican, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin aren't going to become lean Republican from lean Democrat, Ohio isn't going solid Republican, and South Carolina isn't becoming a tossup.

Yeah, nothing will change except for Democrats will continue to improve in previously Republican states while holding their current states rock-solid.

Got it, thanks.

It's so cute when you try to make a rebuttal while ignoring half of the post.

In 10-20 years:

1. Minnesota isn't becoming a tossup. Why would it? Where are Republicans going to improve?
2. Michigan and Wisconsin aren't going to go from lean Democrat to lean Republican. Wisconsin can become less blue and more purple, but lean Republican? Unlikely. And as for Michigan becoming lean Republican? Good luck overpowering Detroit, Flint, their suburbs, and the less conservative rural parts of the state.
3. Pennsylvania, similarly, isn't becoming lean Republican anytime soon. Republicans are eventually going to max out with votes in the declining western half of the state, and what's left then? The Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia (which is growing, by the way), the suburbs, which are purplish blue, places like the Eastern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Berks, which are more purplish blue areas, and Pittsburgh itself. In the current alignment, winning over enough votes in the Democratic trending, growing eastern portion of the state is going to be extremely difficult in a 50/50 election.
4. New Hampshire and Maine becoming pure tossups: why? They've been trending Democratic for quite some time, and there's not much the Republican party has to offer them, like eastern PA as mentioned above.
5. Ohio isn't becoming solid Republican either, sorry. Northeastern Ohio and Columbus will continue to counteract Western and Southern Ohio, and its status as a swing state will likely continue.

On the other side:
1. Utah isn't going to slip to lean Republican status from Solid Republican status. That's a really odd pipe dream there.
2. Arizona... Is that -really- going to become a tossup? Sure there's a growing Hispanic vote, but Hispanic voters tend to become more balanced politically the longer they've been in the country, and immigration levels aren't quite what they were a few years ago.
3. Texas becoming lean Republican I can't quite see, for the same reason as above. It's going to continue as solid Republican barring either a landslide or major improvement with conservative rural whites, which isn't happening, or suburban conservatives, which is incredibly unlikely.
4. The South Central US becoming more Democratic? Yeah, I don't see that. For numerous reasons.
5. South Carolina, similarly, is staying solid Republican.
6. Georgia will -probably- continue to be more lean Republican than swingy.