Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania?

[YaBoyNY]

Because the Republican trend in the declining west is countered by the Democratic trend in the growing eastern part of the state.

[YaBoyNY]

I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

[YaBoyNY]

I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

Toomey coattails.

Just like Specter's coattails won it in 2004, right?

[YaBoyNY]

I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

Toomey coattails.

Just like Specter's coattails won it in 2004, right?

Specter was not the type to win votes for a candidate other than himself.

I don't see Toomey as that type either.

I just don't see a scenario in which any of the current possible Republican candidates make gains in Eastern Pennsylvania where they need to while maintaining their current strength in the West.

[YaBoyNY]

Let's do some math regarding the white vote in Pennsylvania:


2004 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: George W. Bush 48.42% | John Kerry 50.92% (D+2.50)
• Whites (82): George W. Bush 54% | John Kerry 45% (R+9)
• Percentages: George W. Bush 44.28% | John Kerry 36.90% (R+7.38)
• Dependency on Whites: George W. Bush 91.44% | John Kerry 72.46%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 18.98 (126%)

2008 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: John McCain 44.15% | Barack Obama 54.47% (D+10.32)
• Whites (81): John McCain 51% | Barack Obama 48% (R+3)
• Percentages: John McCain 41.31% | Barack Obama 38.88% (R+2.43)
• Dependency on Whites: John McCain 93.56% | Barack Obama 71.37%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 22.19 (131%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2004): Republican + 3.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –01 (98.78%, from 2004)


2012 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: Mitt Romney 46.58% | Barack Obama 51.96% (D+5.38)
• Whites (78): Mitt Romney 57% | Barack Obama 42% (R+15)
• Percentages: Mitt Romney 44.46% | Barack Obama 32.76% (R+11.70)
• Dependency on Whites: Mitt Romney 95.44% | Barack Obama 63.04%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 32.40 (151%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2008): Republican + 10.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –03 (96.29%, from 2008)

If the 2016 state exit polls were to result in a match from 2012, in Pennsylvania, here is an estimate:

2016 PENNSYLANIA
• U.S. President: Republican 45.81% | Democrat 52.73% (D+6.92; Shift: D+1.54)
• Whites (76): Republican 57% | Democrat 42% (R+15)
• Blacks (13): Republican 06% | Democrat 93% (D+87)
• Hispanics (08): Republican 18% | Democrat 80% (D+62)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Percentages (Whites): Republican 43.32% | Democrat 31.92% (R+11.40; Shift: D+0.30)
• Percentages (Blacks): Republican 00.78% | Democrat 12.09% (D+11.31; Shift: N.A.)
• Percentages (Hispanics): Republican 01.44% | Democrat 06.40% (D+4.96; Shift: D+1.24)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Other (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Dependency on Whites: Republican 94.56% | Democrat 60.53%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 34.03 (156%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2012): Republican + 1.63
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –02 (97.43%, from 2012)



Sources:

• How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election, by Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser (both from NBC News), page 130
• @ http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/pennsylvania/president/#.VWF6GHLJCUk
• @ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-doubling-down-on-white-voters-a-viable-strategy-for-the-republican-party/

So youre on record as predicting a nearly 7 point victory for Hillary in PA in 2016. Hillary will do a point and one half better than Obama did in 2012?

More believable and makes more sense than 99% of the things that come off your keyboard.