FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Bush with leads against Hillary

[YaBoyNY]

I never said it was not a swing state, what I'm saying is that if you had to design a perfect swing state that would break for Clinton in the end, you would design Virginia in 2016.

If you count on Virginia being the state to break against Clinton to put you over 270, you're going to be disappointed. Demographics have changed so rapidly there that it's really more of a swing state that would vote Republican as part of a 300 EV win. Obama did better there than in Ohio.

It's the same as North Carolina. A swing state, but honestly we all know it will break for the GOP in the end.

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And I don't get why you insist there's some trend to be gained from midterms. There wasn't in 2010 and there isn't in 2014. Almost 2 million less people voted in 2014 in Virginia. 2 million people. How could you not make an assumption that white Democrats did not show up?

Illinois elected a Republican Governor, Maryland elected a Republican Governor. Are you going to call these potential swing states too? No, it'd be ridiculous.

Well, if you put it this way, I agree with you. If I was a Republican candidate and knew (on Election night) that VA will be the deciding state (because of encouraging polls in FL, OH and CO/IA), I would be VERY nervous, to say the least. The state would probably go Democratic in a 50-50 election. Having said that, I also can't see Virginia going Republican without the GOP winning the national popular vote.
--> I have said this many times, I'm going to say it again: The GOP has to find a way to put PA (or MI, though that one is almost impossible) into play, otherwise the path to 270 becomes very difficult. In fact, I knew that Romney had definitely lost the election when PA was called for Obama.

In all honesty, I think that focusing on turning Ohio more atlas blue would be a better bet. Any serious early foray into Pennsylvania will see serious defense by Democrats. Turning voters in Western Pennsylvania works only until you reach a ceiling there, and since Eastern Pennsylvania, which is the growing half, is trending Democratic, there's only so much you can change.

Focusing on Ohio would definitely pay off more than Pennsylvania.

[YaBoyNY]

I never said it was not a swing state, what I'm saying is that if you had to design a perfect swing state that would break for Clinton in the end, you would design Virginia in 2016.

If you count on Virginia being the state to break against Clinton to put you over 270, you're going to be disappointed. Demographics have changed so rapidly there that it's really more of a swing state that would vote Republican as part of a 300 EV win. Obama did better there than in Ohio.

It's the same as North Carolina. A swing state, but honestly we all know it will break for the GOP in the end.

--

And I don't get why you insist there's some trend to be gained from midterms. There wasn't in 2010 and there isn't in 2014. Almost 2 million less people voted in 2014 in Virginia. 2 million people. How could you not make an assumption that white Democrats did not show up?

Illinois elected a Republican Governor, Maryland elected a Republican Governor. Are you going to call these potential swing states too? No, it'd be ridiculous.

Well, if you put it this way, I agree with you. If I was a Republican candidate and knew (on Election night) that VA will be the deciding state (because of encouraging polls in FL, OH and CO/IA), I would be VERY nervous, to say the least. The state would probably go Democratic in a 50-50 election. Having said that, I also can't see Virginia going Republican without the GOP winning the national popular vote.
--> I have said this many times, I'm going to say it again: The GOP has to find a way to put PA (or MI, though that one is almost impossible) into play, otherwise the path to 270 becomes very difficult. In fact, I knew that Romney had definitely lost the election when PA was called for Obama.

In all honesty, I think that focusing on turning Ohio more atlas blue would be a better bet. Any serious early foray into Pennsylvania will see serious defense by Democrats. Turning voters in Western Pennsylvania works only until you reach a ceiling there, and since Eastern Pennsylvania, which is the growing half, is trending Democratic, there's only so much you can change.

Focusing on Ohio would definitely pay off more than Pennsylvania.

Well, the problem is that it wouldn't be enough: Let's say the Republicans win FL, OH, CO and IA (all of which are very possible). That gets them to 268 EV. Still not enough. It would be enough in 2024, but not in 2016. They still need a tipping point state. Assuming they lose VA narrowly, they are done. Making a play for ME-02 would be another solution lol, that would get them to 269 EV. Otherwise, they have to make a play for PA because I have a hard time seeing them win NH and NV in a close election (they COULD win Virginia, but it would be close and I wouldn't want to rely on that if I was the Republican candidate).

You're correct. My math was off. Still though, I just can't see making a play for Pennsylvania working out as well as some seem to think. I've seen too many people simply say that just by targeting Pennsylvania early, the Republicans can win it, as if the Democrats will do nothing to counter that (I see the same thing regarding North Carolina for Democrats). In a close election, I just can't see a way for Republicans to swing Pennsylvania to them while losing Virginia.