At least Biden’s numbers aren’t as bad as they were in January.
He still has plenty of work to do. If Trump himself wasn't such a toxic candidate, I'd honestly say that no incumbent - Democrat or Republican - could win with these numbers, if they were accurate and still unchanged in September or October.
Trump is extremely overrated as a candidate. He only won against a divided field in 2016 and a terribly run democratic campaign and then in 2020 made so many mistakes(not taking a rally around the flag moment, disastrous first debate) and now is tied or barely ahead against a president whose approvals is in his 30s .