United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[OSR stands with Israel]

I was suspecting the election won't happen until January 2025, so that the Tories drag it out as long as possible. It would be interesting if the election happened around the same time as the US presidential election.

Apparently Sunak may call an election in October in hopes that more people in the UK are paying attention to the US campaign than the UK one. Issue is that would just benefit whatever party is ahead in the polls, which currently is Labour.

[OSR stands with Israel]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

Also the idea a Trump win would benefit them is lol worthy. The main reason Trump would win is due to bad fundamentals overall which are much much worse in the UK than the US so if Biden is losing so is Sunak

[OSR stands with Israel]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

It isn't just that tbh, its that those in the Tories who want a "change" can't agree on what the change should be. Back in 1995 there was an obvious alternative (Hezza) if Major was indeed forced out.

Wasn’t Redwood the main alternative

Seems like Redwood was even being described as the candidate of the Tory Right

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https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

Also the BBC News website is now leading with the speculation.

Seems like the Tories are gonna be kicked out on July 4th once again

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https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1793405555060457958

Only 4 times??

Yeah this is wrong

McDonald: 1924, 1929
Atlee: 1945
Wilson: 1964, 1974
Blair: 1997

[OSR stands with Israel]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Seems like you are getting your wish:

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

Is that so? It was widely reported the week after the local elections that Number 10 actually made a point of telling the party any summer election was OFF and they could make plans accordingly.

The 2 prevailing theories are:

A. Sunak did what Boris failed to do, call an election before Graham Brady called the Palace to inform them that Sunak was out.

B. Sunak wanted to return to his California Mansion in time for the 4th July celebrations.

I'm leaning on theory A. , because he literaly was running in the rain to announce it like a speed race.

Nope the Queen could have rejected Boris's attempts to call an election while the King could not do so for Sunak as I don't think the Lascelles Principles apply if there is a year left in parliament

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1794842931406266625?t=8jj1w3w40pCZaaefroWm...

My goodness

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://torymanifesto.org.uk/

This is brutal