I still don't really know what to make of this race, especially when there are still so many undecideds.
It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.
I can see that too, but I am reminded more of Connecticut in 2018. I've been saying that a lot but ultimately that's what I expect from this race, possibly by a similar margin too.
I am not familiar with CT but was their local dissatisfaction there cause here there is a lot :
https://www.opb.org/article/2022/05/13/portland-oregon-crime-homelessness-gloom-election-politics/Eleven years later, as nightly protests over police violence gave way to destructive acts and no end of negative attention, Blumenauer appeared on C-SPAN to contest the notion that Portland was a “city in chaos” and to rail against federal forces for stirring up trouble.
Now coasting toward a 14th term in the U.S. House, the bicycle-crazy Democratic statesman is about to experience a political pinnacle. A bike and pedestrian bridge named in his honor will open in Northeast Portland this summer
But lately, Blumenauer isn’t bragging quite so loudly about the Rose City.
“Portland is broken,” he said in a statement in February announcing his reelection bid.
Polling from DHM Research shows that voters are far less happy with the city’s trajectory today than at any time in the last 30 years, when the firm began asking. A rock-bottom 8% of voters say Portland is headed in the right direction, down from 38% before the pandemic, and percentages that routinely hit the high 50s and mid 60s earlier this century.
Separate research by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center has also turned up deep pessimism: 82% of Multnomah County residents surveyed in April reported being either somewhat or very worried about the future of their part of the state.
“I’ve been on the scene since ‘77,” said Adam Davis, a pollster and executive director of the organization. “I’ve never seen anything like this. Seriously.”
Like even Kotek is trying to run away from Portland now:
Kotek, though, has put the blame elsewhere. At a recent debate, she lit into Portland leadership when homelessness came up.
“I’m not happy with Mayor [Ted] Wheeler’s performance,” she said. “I’ve worked specifically to say, ‘Here’s money for an RV park.’ Where is it? When I said ‘You need $2 million to clean up trash and graffiti on [the Oregon Department of Transportation’s] property,’ it was there. I don’t believe the city is focused in the way that they should. ... And as governor, we’re going to have some different conversations about ways to make that happen.”
Now I still give the edge to Kotek as Drazen isnt really an assertive campaigner or debater
