Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

Keep in mind the US and Russia militaries operate very very different tactically . The US military before focuses on doing these 3 things :

1. Taking complete control of the skies

2. using air power to destroy communication systems of the opposing military

3. Destroying other military infrastructure important for logistics


The US accomplished the first in day 1 of OIF and the other two simultaneously in the first ten or so days of the invasion. By the time the US got to Baghdad much of the Iraqi military didn’t even know the US had reached Baghdad which  made taking it much easier .


The Russian military strategy in the other hand is based on trying to break the other side’s will to fight which :

1. Is far more immoral

2. Also is far more deadlier for your own military



Just compare this to the Russian invasion :

 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good to see you’re alright andjey 🙂

And I also want you let you know Andriy that most us here support Ukraine .

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Churchill and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

Do you take back what you said about Iraq . Saying it was worse than anything Russia will do in Ukraine

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Putin Needs to be thrown in this prison as punishment for his horrible crimes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Dolphin_Prison

along with all his generals as well for committing these war crimes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Hungary does veto the energy sanctions but the other 26 countries are on board, nothing would stop them from unilaterally enacting them on their own, right? I know as a European I'm supposed to know this stuff, but EU treaties are notoriously difficult.

Do it

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes. The same source who claimed a whole Russian army encircled to the North of Kherson and 48 had hours to surrender only to be destroyed definitely happened in our universe, and a supposed foreign volunteer has time to constantly update his twitter.

If you're looking at 2k deaths you'd have other casualties and wounded ranging from 5k-10k. You mean to tell me a single Ukrainian attack managed to do this, out of essentially wiping out a convoy spanning numerous miles and we don't have satellite pictures nor guys in the ground with vidoes.

I should have rather said that Russian TV alleges that 160 marines have surrendered. But all the other posts I have cited when it comes from Russian telegrams have I never claimed were 100% true. I posted them because they look authentic and was reported by other 3rd parties to be credible enough, including Ukrainian sources, and just that they should be taken into consideration.

I am not pro-Russia because that would be absolutely psychotic in this scenario.

I think it's unfair how a lot of insane junk and obvious misinfo which any reasonable person would realize is claimed for clicks is taken at face value is being posted. At the very least, if you're going to post such an insane event taking place, you should have pictures, interviews, videos, intel, etc from atleast one source, whoever that might be.

Do you at the very least understand why your history of trolling can get people to question your motives here . Hope you can at least acknowledge that rather than expect everyone to just assume that you are arguing in good faith here

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes. The same source who claimed a whole Russian army encircled to the North of Kherson and 48 had hours to surrender only to be destroyed definitely happened in our universe, and a supposed foreign volunteer has time to constantly update his twitter.

If you're looking at 2k deaths you'd have other casualties and wounded ranging from 5k-10k. You mean to tell me a single Ukrainian attack managed to do this, out of essentially wiping out a convoy spanning numerous miles and we don't have satellite pictures nor guys in the ground with vidoes.

I should have rather said that Russian TV alleges that 160 marines have surrendered. But all the other posts I have cited when it comes from Russian telegrams have I never claimed were 100% true. I posted them because they look authentic and was reported by other 3rd parties to be credible enough, including Ukrainian sources, and just that they should be taken into consideration.

I am not pro-Russia because that would be absolutely psychotic in this scenario.

I think it's unfair how a lot of insane junk and obvious misinfo which any reasonable person would realize is claimed for clicks is taken at face value is being posted. At the very least, if you're going to post such an insane event taking place, you should have pictures, interviews, videos, intel, etc from atleast one source, whoever that might be.

Well, if you do not agree with a certain post in this thread, you can quarrel and get into a discussion with the author of the post and others. Let's say it was propaganda. If so, you should not publish propaganda in response. It doesn't work that way. Simplify or deny, but do not publish false information from Russian propagandists who never tell the truth. If you really support Ukraine, I ask you not to publish information from Russian false sources.

Lets not pretend Ukainian fake news doesn't also exist. "Russian fake news" serves a certain slant and goal, and so does "Ukrainian fake news". It does a disservice to the thread to only show information only being put out by only one side.

Can we not do a both sides thing here please

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the invasion will end any time soon. Putin is a dictator who doesn't care if his people suffer. Ukraine arent able to launch a counter offensive

In short: you are wrong. Ukraine is conducting successful counterattacks in many places. Russia has not achieved any of its goals in a month and a half of war (despite the fact that many "experts" predicted the fall of Kyiv in 3 days). Moreover, putin's goal now is to destroy the entire Ukrainian people, the entire Ukraine, which cannot be done with the forces available to him (this is theoretically possible only with the general mobilization in Russia and/or the use of nuclear weapons)

Do you think it is possible now for Ukraine to be able to retain pre invasion boundaries .

[OSR stands with Israel]

I will also say an unpopular opinion, but I am sure of it: by starting the war against Ukraine, Russia has doomed itself to disintegration. The disintegration of Russia is now inevitable, regardless of the outcome of the war here. In 5-10 years, there will be many smaller states on the map instead of Russia, so we need to prepare for this.

It's great to see you alive and well!

I've had a thought about Russia's future, and want to hear what you think:

Suppose say that Ukraine scores a decisive victory on the battlefield: Russians are routed in the Donbass and Kherson, and Putin has no choice other than to retreat to pre-2014 borders (he doesn't use nukes because NATO actually warned him they would obliterate what remains of his troops). Russia is unable to prevent Ukraine from quickly joining the EU or NATO. Ukraine becomes a nuclear latent power akin to Japan.

Because this betrayal is so blatant to those Russians who had been waving Z flags, Putin abruptly pivots on his propaganda apparatus. Suddenly, mysterious documents appearing on state TV claim that NATO had been planning to use Ukraine as a base to invade Russia. They then claim that Russia conducted a pre-emptive strike to completely degrade Ukraine and NATO's ability to invade Russia; and that while Russia lost thousands of troops, it was a small price to pay to protect the Russian homeland. The FSB are ordered to arrest anyone who merely posts the word "betrayal" on VKontakte.

Putin also decides to massively slash the size and scope of the Russian military, both because he can't afford to maintain a large army, and to further reduce the risk of a coup. The Russian military is reduced to just three functions: 1) parades in Red Square 2) a few elite Spetsnaz HQ'd far from Moscow 3) a few hundred actually useable nukes. He also massively ramps up the FSB, turning Russia into a totalitarian police state. The west relaxes a few sanctions, but Russia's economy remains a complete basketcase.

This Russia is little more than a giant North Korea; but Putin both is too afraid of, and can't afford to, start any more wars. Western leaders continue to call Putin a war criminal who should be sent to The Hague, but quietly prefer him to remain in the Kremlin.

My question to you is, would you, as a Ukrainian citizen, accept that scenario? How would Ukrainian society react to that development? And, how plausible do you think that is?

I will answer briefly: I am not against such a scenario (objectively, Ukraine cannot return Crimea by military means; diplomatically - maybe after a certain period of time. The situation with the occupied parts of Donbas is the same. Therefore, I would be completely satisfied with your scenario. I have written here before, Russia has passed its own sentence - the disintegration into smaller states. Therefore, sooner or later, Crimea and Donbas will still return to Ukraine). I think Ukrainian society is about the same as I am.

As for the third question, I don't think this scenario is quite likely, because I'm sure that if Russia loses on the battlefield, putin will use nuclear weapons. Moreover, some Russian officials have already publicly stated the possibility of its use.

Hopefully a military loss leads to Putin being removed from power and thrown in Black Dolphin Prison for all the horrible crimes he has committed before he has a chance to do that

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible.  

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

Stop comparing our invasion to the Russian one . Suddam Hussain was actually an evil dictator and did have WMD’s at one point even if he didn’t in 2003

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-russian-oil-ban-hits-131311689.html

Hungary looks set to put a stop to the European Union’s ban on Russian oil imports after leader Viktor Orbán compared the proposal to an atomic bomb.

Screw the EU then and each nation should unilaterally implement their sanctions .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Amazing how much Kissinger has also destroyed his legacy

[OSR stands with Israel]

Amazing how much Kissinger has also destroyed his legacy

There was no "legacy" that he is creating or destroying. This is Kissinger being Kissinger even when he is 99 years old.

Nixon was a fantastic president on FP so yah that was part of his legacy

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's great to hear from you Andriy and I hope you continue to give us periodic updates. Also hopefully those war criminals get caught and executed for their heinous crimes

[OSR stands with Israel]

The question is, how do we make Russia a civilised country again?

We don't have the option of defeating it in full scale war as we did Japan and Germany.

When were they one though

[OSR stands with Israel]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

The INC is even more pro Russia than the BJP so yah India is just bad on the issue across the board. In India there probably is a more young vs old rather than a partisan divide as young Indians are generally more pro West than old Indians

[OSR stands with Israel]

Could Ukraine even get back Crimea at this point

[OSR stands with Israel]

I bet Modi supporters in India are deeply triggered now.

The INC is even more pro Russia than the BJP so yah India is just bad on the issue across the board. In India there probably is a more young vs old rather than a partisan divide as young Indians are generally more pro West than old Indians

90% of Indians don't really have some particularily strong feelings for Russia. Most of the Indians probably aren't even aware of the war going on. It's mainly some people in social media who tend to be louder when it comes to being pro-Russia

Sure but I am talking about people who are generally political rather than the Normie.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place.  

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

Now would be a good time while he still has troops to command over there.  Or, alternately, he could evacuate what he has while he still has an army to evacuate:

Russian Force Sees 'Mass Desertion' Amid Putin's Recruitment Push: Report

Although this report (by Ukrainian intelligence) has yet to be verified by independent sources.  

Could it result in a full blown Mutiny

[OSR stands with Israel]

If China wants to reclaim the territory it once held under the Qing dynasty at its height, it is getting harder and harder to resist the temptation as Russia denudes the frontiers of their best troops in its desperation to stave off defeat in Ukraine:

Why Russia does not have enough soldiers to secure its borders
Moscow’s massive deployment to the war in Ukraine has left its perimeters unprotected, increasing its vulnerability

We do not want two nuclear powers to go to war

[OSR stands with Israel]

The weird thing about the pro-Russian viewpoints I always see is this pervading, underlying belief that they're always on the cusp of victory if only they were to put in a little bit more effort. If only Russia had a few ten thousand more men, if only western support were to slow down, if only they could push through Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk then Ukrainian resistance would fall apart and Russia would get the quick easy victory that they were just unlucky not to get from the start. Its like Russia supporters cannot acknowledge both that Russia is no longer a military powerhouse capable of enforcing its will wherever it wants or that Ukrainians have their own strongly compelling reasons to fight and the ability to do so even if the West were to pull out its support.

This potential mobilization is the same thing; even if Russia were to fully mobilize is there any reason to think that it'd mean Ukrainian support for the war would collapse or that the Russian military would be better equipped or positioned to swiftly win the war? I doubt it.

To me, the perils of general mobilization for Putin don't exactly make me dread it.

Would this be a potential mutiny

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

Color Me skeptical whether this Mutual support will go beyond exchange of flattering tweets, especially to any point Italy is called on to contribute to the Ukraine's defense either with direct payments or suffering cut off of Russian gas.

It probably depends on how much power Berlusconi has over the government and whether he’d be willing to bring down the incoming government over this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1577006943499350016