Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.
Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC
If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack
True, but for much of last year, Texas was thought to be competitive, and we had polls showing Biden tied or even leading in the state. I think Trump did better than expected there. But as to Florida, I think that's a pretty clear result that would have suggested a Trump reelection.
Did anyone really buy the polls showing Biden leading or tied in Texas? Neither campaign did and 538 ultimately expected Trump to carry Texas by 2 points
Same way no one expected Biden to carry Wisconsin by 8 points
A Poster by the name of TrendsAreReal gaslighted any poster who said Texas wasnt a pure tossup state and there were many posters who expected Biden to win Texas.