When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Likely R: 2024
Lean R: 2028
Tossup : 2032

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t think we can “rule out” 2024, even if Republicans will start out favored. I won’t say for sure, but I think it’ll at least be competitive from here on out, even if we really are going to play the same game we did with Georgia of it chronically “not being there yet.”

Texas was about as close in 2020 as Georgia was in 2016. Just saying...

Texas and Georgia aren’t really as comparable as you guys think . A better comparison for Texas is Arizona and 2020 Texas voted more than two points to the right of 2016 Arizona even as the nation moved more than two points to the left.


Remember Arizona in 2016 was basically a Lean R state, showing you how far Texas is from becoming a swing state

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't get how we can rule out 2024?  I was actually going to vote 2024.  It's clearly trending in one direction and now the margin is around 5 points.  I'd be surprised if Republicans win by more than 3 or 4 points in 2024.

Texas voted 10 points more Republican than the national vote in 2020



 

Foolish to write off a state this early. Y'all have no idea how 2024 is gonna shake out. Texas could be within 2-4 points if not closer, which definitely places it in swingy territory.

I define swing state as a state both parties have at the very least a 40% chance of carrying

[OSR stands with Israel]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

That isnt how trends work at all and the reason for the huge change from 2012 to 2016 is due to how much the GOP changed in that time period. I doubt their will be another change in the party similar to the one from 2012 to 2016

Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

 The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

[OSR stands with Israel]

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Re: When Do You See Texas Becoming a Swing State?

The 2020 Democrats needed a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +7 in order to flip and carry Texas. That margin was reached by 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. He won nationally by +7.26 and carried 28 states with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia.

Texas, for the Democrats, is closer than some realize. It is matter of reaching the necessary numbers.

No, Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 9-10 points in order to carry Texas in 2020

In U.S. presidential elections which especially switch the White House party, there tends to be a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of that pickup-winning party. So, if we get Election #01 won by Party A with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, and Election #02 is a pickup for Party B also with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5, that would be a 10-point national shift resulting in a net gain of +10 states.

This is extremely faulty logic and meets the correlation isnt causation fallacy

[OSR stands with Israel]

2024; didn't vote in the poll because I couldn't find the 2024 option!

If you simply extend past trends (averaging 2012-2016 and 2016-20) onto 2024, Texas is easily within the swing state column; I think there's a decent chance it votes left of North Carolina and Michigan even. The trend of Hispanic voters to back the incumbent president will help too; I'd predict that assuming Biden runs for reelection, he's got a good chance of picking up Texas.

That isnt how trends work at all and the reason for the huge change from 2012 to 2016 is due to how much the GOP changed in that time period. I doubt their will be another change in the party similar to the one from 2012 to 2016

I think the suburban trends are more likely to continue fairly fast, given the Republican Party’s doubling-down on Trumpism while Biden is inoffensive to suburban voters.

Most trends slow down in reelection bids and have in the past. just look at CO/VO in 2008 and 2012 and the Rust Belt in 2016 and 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Most trends slow down in reelection bids and have in the past. just look at CO/VO in 2008 and 2012 and the Rust Belt in 2016 and 2020.

Even if we extrapolate solely on the 2016-20 trend, Biden would only lose TX by 2% in 2024.
The trend for Hispanic voters to lean towards incumbents would easily bring him over the line.

No if we extrapolate solely on 2016-20 trend Biden would lose Texas by 4.5 points if the NPV margin stays the same