Georgia is Virginia 2008 without the crash

[OSR stands with Israel]

In my opinion, Georgia is what Virginia in 2008 would have been without the crash which tilts R in a neutral environment but is more or less a tossup. Virginia was only a solid win for Obama cause of the crash or else its a pure tossup

Basically I think this is a good comparison

2016 Georgia = 2004 Virginia(Republicans win it handily but Fairfax/Gwinnet and Cobb goes Democratic for the first time in a generation)

2020 Georgia= 2008 Virginia without the crash(Its a pure tossup state that can go either way in an environment that leans Dem but would still probably go Republican in a purely Neutral environment)

2024 Georgia = 2012 Virginia(Its once again a tossup state which Republicans can win but would probably be a last Hurrah for the GOP outside a wave)

2028 Georgia= 2016 Virginia(Republicans can win it if they manage to win the popular vote by 3-4 points but its clear that its no longer even a purple state)

2032 Georgia= 2020 Virginia(Republicans no longer can win the state outside of an Obama 2008 style win at the very least)

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the verdict remains to be seen.

I think Georgia will end up being just another swing state rather than Virginia

Virginia is blue because of a specific type of suburban voter: govt employee or contractor in nova

Georgia is more private sector.

On the other hand, Republicans are far more relaint on having to run up the totals with White Voters(including suburbanites) in Georgia than they ever were in Virginia. In 2004 Bush won Virginia by over 8 points while winning 69% of the White Vote while in Georgia Republicans need over 70% just to win the state.

So the fact is Republicans dont need to collapse with White Suburbanites in the Atlanta suburbs like they did in NoVA for Georgia to become another Virginia. If they collapsed that much Georgia would go the way of 1990s Illionis not Virginia

[OSR stands with Israel]

The main thing I question about the view of Georgia as the next Virginia is that in 2008 Virginia already had a Democratic governor and a Democratic Senator - as well as a new Democratic Senator-elect. Georgia as of right now has none of those things - though obviously the Senate seats there are still up in the air due to the runoffs. If we do manage to win one or both of those Senate runoffs then I'll be a bit more open to this comparison.

Well Jim Webb only won cause George Allen totally blew that race and he had more appeal in rural VA than Abrams had in rural GA. I think otherwise 2006 VA Senate was pretty much 2018 GA Governor

[OSR stands with Israel]

The “crash” (which most Virginians were insulated from) has nothing to do with VA turning blue, and everything to do with George Allen’s dramatic implosion in 2006.   Which was the year that NoVA realized we hold immense political power.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls


Look at the polling before the crash , it was a pure Tossup if not Tilt McCain

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm wouldn't say Georgia is going to vote Democratic in 2024 and/or 2028, but these are fair points. Certainly I hope it will become a blue-leaning state to add to the Democratic column, especially with Ohio and Iowa de facto gone.

Arizona is likely more going the way of Nevada rather than Colorado or New Mexico.

VA has been trending 2-3 points D every 4 years, which I also think GA and AZ will do long term as well.

Except in 2012 as trends benefiting a party slow down the first four years the party holds the White House

[OSR stands with Israel]

The “crash” (which most Virginians were insulated from) has nothing to do with VA turning blue, and everything to do with George Allen’s dramatic implosion in 2006.   Which was the year that NoVA realized we hold immense political power.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls


Look at the polling before the crash , it was a pure Tossup if not Tilt McCain

Ironically, the most likely outcome for 2008 without the crash would have been Obama winning the EC while McCain wins the PV!

Yup cause Obama was too strong in states like Iowa, Colorado , New Mexico to ever drop below 269 and since Democrats controlled the majority of state delegations then Obama would get elected(and that is assuming McCain would carry NH , NV)

[OSR stands with Israel]

The “crash” (which most Virginians were insulated from) has nothing to do with VA turning blue, and everything to do with George Allen’s dramatic implosion in 2006.   Which was the year that NoVA realized we hold immense political power.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls


Look at the polling before the crash , it was a pure Tossup if not Tilt McCain

Ironically, the most likely outcome for 2008 without the crash would have been Obama winning the EC while McCain wins the PV!

Yup cause Obama was too strong in states like Iowa, Colorado , New Mexico to ever drop below 269 and since Democrats controlled the majority of state delegations then Obama would get elected(and that is assuming McCain would carry NH , NV)

Colorado was also well left of the PV, so it may not even come to that.  Obama gets 278 EV in a McCain +0.7 PV scenario.

no im talking about this map