How each state trended from 1992-2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

30% shade: 0-3 pt change
50% shade: 3-7 pt change
70% shade: 7+ pt change

[OSR stands with Israel]

These are the states that most people are making a huge deal about Trends now:

Out of these states more states have not had their 92-12 trend hold up compared to the ones that did

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's 96-12 for those "important states" (Leaving KS out due to it being Dole's home st)

[OSR stands with Israel]

But 92 and 2012 were completely different elections.

The only reasonable trend map is 2000-2016: similar margin, same outcome.

No 2000 and 2016 is not reasonable either , just look at the two nominees . In 2000 the Republicans nominated an Evangelical Neo Liberal  from the Dallas suburbs while in 2016 Republicans nominated a bombastic socially moderate economic nationalist from the North East.


HW and Romney on the other hand are pretty similar and while there were differences between Obama and Clinton many of the perceptions were similar as well . Also 92-12 was the Blue Wall Dem Coalition era

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wonder if using 1996-2016 as opposed to 1992-2012 would show something different or not. Trends saw a massive change or acceleration between 2012 and 2016