Didnt you also make this point when you said there was nothing the GOP could have done to save VA. Well if McCain beat Bush in 2000, Bush lost in 2004 so a Republican won in 2008 it would still be a Republican state today and if Romney won in 2012 or if Kasich or even Marco won in 2016 then it still would be a swing state today
Err... that’s not how any of this works.
Why Presidents in power have a lot , a lot to do with trends
If McCain wins in 2000- You get a socially moderate Republican President and a GOP who still woudl be very strong in affluent suburbs, on the other hand it would be weaker in non western rural areas
If Bush loses in 2004- You get a President McCain or President Romney in 2008 and the collapse of the Virginia Republican party which happened in Bush's 2nd term doesnt happen. Bush's social conservatism and the 2008 recession happening on Bush's watch caused that collapse
If Romney wins in 2012- Well VA was still a swing state then and clearly one , and any path to victory for him would include VA so the GOP would have to have their party be appealing to voters in VA.
If Kasich wins in 2016- I would say it would still be Tilt D state
Also look at the stats I just gave out below: The rust belt had trended Dem from 92-12(and also did from 04-12) and despite that it went in opposie direction in 2016
