Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think it's also worth noting that gubernatorial elections don't necessarily track the same as the national environment. Even in strong wave midterms, there's usually stuff for both parties. There is 2006, where Republicans didn't gain any governorships, but Democratic gains were somewhat underwhelming and reserved mostly to the low-hanging fruit. 1994 is probably the closest to a complete wipeout for Democrats. On the other hand, you have a strong Democratic year like 1986, but Democrats end up losing net 8 governorships (although Democrats had 34 governors at the time). Even more interesting is 2002, where 20 governorships changed parties.

Ultimately though, Georgia is a highly polarized state. I think what Stacey Abrams offers is enthusiasm for Democrats. I feel she's a genuinely exciting candidate for Democrats to get behind and the coalition to victory in the state is there now. The suburbs are hard to predict, but the key to victory in Georgia is to really juice minority turnout. It'll be especially interesting with her sharing the ballot with Senator Warnock. No one is going to run away with either race and that's something we all seem to recognize. I think it's far too soon to rate this race as anything other than a true toss-up.

Ehh I disagree as while Democrats picking up seats like NY/OH would be extremely predictable in early 2006 I dont think MD was. Elrich had pretty good approvals in Maryland and even right before election day O'Malley led by like 1 point:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/md/maryland_governor_race-42.html

Id say if 2006 wasn't a Wave Elrich would have been reelected.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election#Graphical_summary

Looks like the polling is very tight

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election#Graphical_summary

Looks like the polling is very tight

Probably goes to a runoff then. I hope Raffensberger hangs on. He just did his job in 2020. It's an embarrassment the guy's life is in danger because of it.

Same in GA this is what my ballot would be like:


Senate: Walker
Governor: Kemp
Secretary of State: Raffensberger

Not really following the other races so dont know about the rest

[OSR stands with Israel]

There are apparently a decent number of people who voted for Kemp, Raffensperger and MTG. I don't know anything anymore.

Incumbency

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I mean this is a huge fallacy as if you arent even willing to vote for someone like Raffensperger than what incentive do Republicans have of nominating people like Raffensperger.

Also Abrams was an election denier as well so yah

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I think it will be a long time before that happens. Trump, it appears to me, will have a lasting influence on the Republican Party and the direction it takes, and it is definitely becoming a more downscale, working-class, non-college-educated party than it was before. But who was the last Republican you voted for? Isakson in 2016?

Also keep in mind this is not something just isolated to the US. The Right all across the world is moving in this direction, not just the GOP , which tells you that its gonna be very hard to move back. Heck even in Canada the Conservative Party there in a massive landslide nominated someone who made his main campaign pledge to fire the gatekeepers( consulting class, politicians, bureaucrats, or agencies), his political candidacy was kicked off with him supporting the anti vax mandate Trucker Protest, and wants to implement DeSantis style anti Woke Laws in Canada but taking grants away from university who dont protect free speech. Hell in Alberta they just nominated someone who wants to outright nullify many federal laws so yah the right is moving like this all across the world.

You see it here, in Canada, in Western Europe, in India etc so that tells you this trend is global