MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2

[OSR stands with Israel]

MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.

What's your hot take on the Realignment of 1987?

Fordice ousted Mabus in 1991 by focusing on affirmative action, it's clear that Republicans have exploited the racial tension in the state and made it virtually impossible for Dems to get the 30% of whites they would need to win statewide.

And Republicans just started exploiting racial tension in 1987?  Local Democrats just stopped around then?

Unironically yes

The magical year of 1987 when everyone agreed to a clean switch!

Realignment doesn't mean switch,

For example, 1932 was yes a realigning election where in one election cycle the Democrats went from being the party that spent the previous 36 years in the Wilderness to a Party that Dominated totally American Politics for the next 36-48 years.


For the Republicans 1980 was an election where the Neo-Liberal Conservative Wing took over and dominated Republican Party Politics till like in 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.

Vitter vs. JBE: LA will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 2008 is comical.

Moore vs. Jones: AL will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1998 is comical.

I never would have said that about LA, which despite being inelastic is still is much more flexible than AL/MS.

Um, Doug Jones didn't clear 50%, he only received 49.97% (and a rounded 50% is not enough to win with MS laws, see Musgrove and his 1999 post election battle), and this with a pedophile as his opponent and half of Republicans not voting. Thanks for proving my point.

1) What exactly makes the demographics of the Lousiana of 2019 more favorable for Democrats than MS/AL? Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the state less black than MS and less suburban than AL?

2) Okay, so a pro-choice Democrat won a Senate race in a Trump +28 (62%) Deep South state with 49.97% instead of 50%+1 of the vote? Welp, I guess that settles it, then. If only he had done .04% better, I’d be ready to call AL an elastic state. Actually, AL is even more inelastic than that, as Jones only won with 49.96559701049884% and not 49.97%!

3) I didn’t prove your point at all. If AL was as inelastic and partisan as people make it out to be, why did those Republicans who stayed home or voted for Jones, you know, care about candidate quality or the allegations in the first place? Why did they believe the women and not Moore?

The Suburbs of AL are far more Republican than LA and that makes it much much harder for a party to find a path to victory.


Manchin would lose in AL even if he was the incumbent