Missouri: 1996-2008 vs Ohio 2004-2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

Missouri:                                                         Ohio:
1996: D+6.3%                                                          2004: R+2.1%
Relative to National Vote: R+2.2%                              Relative to National Vote: D+0.3%

2000: R+3%                                                             2008: D+4.6%
Relative to National Vote: R+3.5%                              Relative to National Vote: R+2.6%

2004: R+7.2%                                                          2012: D+3%
Relative to National Vote: R+4.4%                               Relative to National Vote: R+0.9%

2008: R+0.1%                                                           2016: R+8.1%
Relative to National Vote: R+7.3%                               Relative to National Vote: R+10.2%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting how MO's march to the right has been slow and steady whereas OH's was a much more sudden lurch. Unfortunately Trump was the best candidate to peel off traditionally democratic voters in the Mahoning valley. While Cruz, Rubio etc. would still have won OH if they were the nominee, it wouldn't have been by eight points.

Probabaly because 08 was a strong Dem year, it wasn't as noticeable how MO was shifting compared to 2016 being more of a neutral year with Ohio. Also Ohio is more populist white that will vote for either party while Missouri is more like the south with inelastic whites and minorties.

Surprisingly even if you look at how each a state was in relation to popular vote


Missouri was like 7.3 points more Republican than national vote in 08 while Ohio was 10.2%

[OSR stands with Israel]

The idea that it is only populism giving Ohio its Republican lean is completely ridiculous.

Do you expect any better #analysis from Atlas? #Populism is clearly the key to everything!

I read an article one time which was from the early 2000s and they said the reason W Bush is so liked is because like Reagan he is a populist .


Lol if Reagan and W Bush are considered populists