Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope Scott Wins


He is by far one of the 3 best Republican candidates running this year

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope Scott Wins


He is by far one of the 3 best Republican candidates running this year

That’s a pretty stunning indictment on the rest of the other candidates then if a Medicare Fraud is your best

He has been a great governor



And he never was even charged for Medicare fraud or even sued for it

[OSR stands with Israel]

Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW.

Republicans win both.

[OSR stands with Israel]

538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

[OSR stands with Israel]

NY Times isnt giving probabilities for each race yet

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Texas so slow

[OSR stands with Israel]

The worst Governor Oregon has had in at least the past 60 years got reelected


Just damn

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why hasnt the results of NV come in yet

[OSR stands with Israel]

James only took 8% of the black vote in MI.

But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000.

Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans.

Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed.

I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term.

[OSR stands with Israel]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason


Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that

[OSR stands with Israel]

Whats wrong with 538 Nevada prediction

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason


Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that

I am pretty sure the 538 model is not based on county level results at all. It just is based on the current # of votes counted, regardless of geography. There is no sub-district or sub-state model.

Wait what


But then how does that explain when Beto was leading Cruz chances were over 90%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nooooo

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come on Scott

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott truly deserves to be senator

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even if the margin narrows to 13k votes it will be very hard for Nelson to win



He has to win more than 19000 of the 25000 votes then to win and that means he will have to win over 75% of the undercount

[OSR stands with Israel]

Shouldn’t any state wide election be run only by the state governments themselves and not the counties.

Now you can’t change that rule for this cycle but it should be changed in the future

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060984339964588032

That vote should be invalid and would be even in states like Oregon

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060984339964588032

How can you argue that this should be counted?

Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD...

If that was counted, this should be too.

Hypocrites.

I think in Oregon that would count if the name was also crossed out Horizontally.


But the FL one would not be accepted as in that one it looks like the voter crossed out both the candidates and the new vote wasnt bubbled in.