The GOP's suburbia problem

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the GOP is that Trumpism has no suburban appeal whatsoever.

Wrong.

This. A bulk of Trump's support comes from the suburbs.

True of every Republican. The problem is that Trump gets less strong support there than any since Dole or even Goldwater.

This is what's key ... no Republican wins an election - in literally any state in the union - without very strong numbers in the suburbs, where a majority of the candidate's votes are naturally going to come (supplemented with SOME urban support).  There simply aren't enough rural voters, period.  It's simple math.  Trump doesn't seem to understand that or, more likely, just doesn't care.

The current electoral map was created by Bush, not Trump, it was Bush's decision to reach out to rural evangelicals in contrast to Mccain trying to double down on the suburbs in 2000.

Doesn't matter now, does it?  Trump is perfectly fine with the setup and even seems to take a strange pride in it.

Reagan basically won the same coalition as Nixon.

Well when two candidates win 49 states apiece, there's obviously going to be considerable overlap. Perhaps the point is that their coalitions were markedly different in their first Presidential wins, which I don't really think is that disputable.

Thats cause Reagan won by 10 points , Nixon only won by 1 point


Also the correct word to say is Reagan Coalition was an extension of Nixon's


- A South Western + Suburban Coalition


Thats where both their Coalitions main strength was

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the GOP is that Trumpism has no suburban appeal whatsoever.

Wrong.

This. A bulk of Trump's support comes from the suburbs.

True of every Republican. The problem is that Trump gets less strong support there than any since Dole or even Goldwater.

This is what's key ... no Republican wins an election - in literally any state in the union - without very strong numbers in the suburbs, where a majority of the candidate's votes are naturally going to come (supplemented with SOME urban support).  There simply aren't enough rural voters, period.  It's simple math.  Trump doesn't seem to understand that or, more likely, just doesn't care.

The current electoral map was created by Bush, not Trump, it was Bush's decision to reach out to rural evangelicals in contrast to Mccain trying to double down on the suburbs in 2000.

Doesn't matter now, does it?  Trump is perfectly fine with the setup and even seems to take a strange pride in it.

Reagan basically won the same coalition as Nixon.

Well when two candidates win 49 states apiece, there's obviously going to be considerable overlap. Perhaps the point is that their coalitions were markedly different in their first Presidential wins, which I don't really think is that disputable.

Thats cause Reagan won by 10 points , Nixon only won by 1 point


Also the correct word to say is Reagan Coalition was an extension of Nixon's


- A South Western + Suburban Coalition


Thats where both their Coalitions main strength was

Yes, that is what I was saying.

There is an irony here, Reagan's policies were very much driven by a western rebellion against the Eastern establishment. "The Sagebrush Rebellion" is the term that I have heard used, which was revolting against land use policies, EPA and energy regulations (including quotas) at the same time there was the tax revolt and the weariness of the middle class facing the crushing impact of stagflation. All of these economic conditions were made worse by policies championed by Nixon and Washington elite.

At the same time the rising demographics powering the GOP were the same, Sunbelt suburbia and a shift towards a more Ethnics+Germans+Southerners and away from traditional Republican demographics (Pre-existing declines that just continued over time). Nixon did very well with middle class Irish and Italian precincts in New York City, while he slid considerably compared to to his own 1960 campaign in the Upper East Side. Nixon also represented the supplanting of GOP strength in the North coming from non-Yankee whites (Germans, Scots-Irish, Former Southerners, Irish, and Dutch, who had at one point or another all been Democrats), as opposed to the traditional GOP base in the North of Yankee whites.

Yet all of these same people were decimated by the effects of Nixon's policies, the same Nixon they elected and thus the same people who put him office fueled a revolution against basically their own guy. Of course we need to acknowledge that Nixon hated the establishment, but always craved to be accepted by it and when he wasn't, it drove his insecurities.

Reagan's strength was very similar, he was even more appealing to those middle class Irish,  Italian and ethnic areas, he was more appealing to rural Non-Yankee whites in the North (he was an FDR Democrat from the Midwest) and he was far more effective at breaking into the south. He also did even worse in places like Vermont and other areas, continuing all the pre-existing trends that started in the 1950's with Eisenhower and was only momentarily halted by Kennedy. He was from the West, was not part of the establishment and could easily personify the sagebrush rebellion in living form.


Trump is the evolution of the Bush coalition and just like Reagan's nomination was powered by a base that was angry at the establishment they had held up as their champions a decade prior, Trump epitomized the anger at the Bush's and road it to the nomination. Even while doing so, he was being supported by the demographic elements that Bush had taken a lot of strength from as well or Bush had cultivated as a key part of his coalition.

But Reagan unlike Trump was basically liked by the GOP establishment during his winning campaign and had most of their endorsements as well.

The difference between Reagan and Trump is I believe the GOP establishment always wanted to move in Reagan's Direction and personally supported the policies Reagan supported, it was just that they didn't believe it was an electable platform until they say how well Reagan did in 1976(and his famous RNC speech). So by 1980 the Establishment seeing he could win embraced him as their candidate .

The 4th paragraph in this article : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-is-just-like-reagan-in-1980-expect-people-actually-liked-reagan/ showed how much establishment support Reagan had in 1979(He had 90% of the endorsements )

On the other hand Trump was hated because his platform went against what the Establishment wanted even personally.