Why was Kerry doing so bad in the polls before the first debate

[OSR stands with Israel]

Like In September of 2004 Bush had a 7-9 Point lead over Kerry :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_2004


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-bush-holding-lead-over-kerry/

[OSR stands with Israel]

Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map

Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map

Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.

This is basically what state polls showed in mid September, although I am pretty sure Kerry still led in Michigan and maybe Oregon.

I believe Bush greatly outperformed the polls in Michigan and Oregon that year PVI wise that year.

For this map i just basically gave Bush any states he lost by 4.5 points or less , and Made Maine 1st a maybe because it would have flipped if the upper range of the mid September polls were right.