When will Democrats win back the House?

[OSR stands with Israel]

2016 - Democrats make 2-5 gain win white House
2018: Democrats lose 6-12 seats
2020: Democrats lose 15-20 more seats and white house(and lose chance for redistricting)

After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

2022: Democrats make 10-15 seat gain

2024: Republican retain white house and gain 10-12 seats

2026: Democrats make a 30-35 seat gain

Entering 2028:  Republicans will hold between 228- 249 seats in the house( most likely in between that)   

So If Dems win in 2016(80% happening) they are certainly  locked out of the house for the next decade.

Now 2028 if Republicans win Dems have a chance of recapturing 2030 , if Dems win they can possibly take back the house if there is a 2008 style wave(likely not), but they will likely just miss taking back the house and get crushed in 2030 and lose the house for another decade.

Only way I see Democrats take back the house within 20 years

A. Republicans win in 2016 and get all the blame for troubles which will happen the next four years

B: Republicans pull of three consecutive victories between 2020-2028 and Democrats take back house in a wave in 2030

C.  Republicans President by 2028 is as unpopular as W Bush was in 2008

D: Realignment

Other then that I dont see them taking back the house until the 2040s.

[OSR stands with Israel]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

2016-2020 will be similar time period to 1976-1980, whoever wins in 2016 will cause their party to be crushed by a realignment in 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

2016-2020 will be similar time period to 1976-1980, whoever wins in 2016 will cause their party to be crushed by a realignment in 2020.

Why?

For many reasons no economic expansion in American history has lasted more then 10 years so we can expect a recession by 2018. Also we will have a major foreign policy troubles in 2020, for the republicans they will invade a country and like Iraq get bogged down there, with Democrats ISIS will likely grow, Russia makes more trouble and possibly Iran.

If a Democrat is in office Democrats will get all the Blame for any trouble due to holding the white house for 12 years and like Bush in 1992 they cant blame Congress. If Republicans win and things collapse on them like it did for Carter they will get the Blame as they hold all three branches for government.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Troubles with foreign policy can be avoided for either party if they do this ( give an ultimatuim to ISIS , if they dont listen kick their buts like we did with the Taliban but unlike Afganhistan leave immediatly and threaten to repeat the process in 3-4 years if they show up again).

Troubles with Economic policy can only be avoided if the FED goes back to how Volcker managed it and not Greenspan