This is a two-parter. 1998 and 2002 are notable for being the only midterms since FDR that benefitted the incumbent party. In 1998 it was due to an unpopular impeachment and in 2002 it was because of the rally around the flag effect post-9/11.
1962 should be added because Democrats gained Senate seats and the minor House losses were Dems who didn't support Kennedy anyway.
I'd like to see more what-ifs midterm elections on this forum...seems like we only get presidential what-ifs.
2002: I say Democrats get a House majority, but it probably wouldn't be by much due to redistricting. I say the Senate is a one-seat gain for D's..they get NH and AR, R's get MN. MO and GA are D holds.
1998: I don't remember this election as well, but it wouldn't have taken much of a shift for the GOP to gain Senate seats. Didn't Harry Reid win by just 500 some votes? Maybe Faircloth survives too. No clue about the House races, but I doubt Republicans could've made more than single-digit gains due to a) peace and prosperity under a Democratic president, b) low Democratic exposure (due to the '94 elections), and c) no redistricting.
