With everything going as OTL
I'm not sure why you think we could change the results without changing the circumstances. Are you telling us to go back in time and rig the elections?
Yeah, for either of those to win, the conditions in which they ran would have to be dramatically different. You could say hostages in Iran released or bin Laden caught, but given the dire state of the economy in both cases, those things most likely just would've made the election closer. Maybe prevented a Republican Senate in 1980 or a Democratic supermajority in 2008...