Would Landrieu have lost in '08 if....

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Hi, I'm new to the forum and I know I've only posted about the Louisiana Senate race so far, but I promise I'll post about other stuff eventually...I'm an elections junkie.

So my question is would Landrieu have lost in '08 had it been anything but a great Democratic year? Even if it had just been a mildly pro-Democratic year, would she have gone down? Keep in mind she only won by six points IRL.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

She would have lost in 2008 had Louisiana not left the jungle primary system for that election.

Why? She won without a runoff. Are you saying that if Louisiana had used party primaries, Kennedy wouldn't have been the nominee? He was the only one running.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

She would have won, but it would have been by around 3-4%. I think the slump for Obama/Landrieu would have been similar in the rural areas regardless, but Obama really helped to turnout blacks for her in Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

Keep in mind, Katrina recovery was still a huge issue then. Lots of ordinarily-GOP suburban New Orleans voters were willing to look past her party label becuase of her recovery efforts. I think they would have done so even in normal/slightly Democratic year.

Yeah, Louisiana's incumbent-friendly in congressional races (not so much in state races). And just three years after Katrina, the seniority argument (and plus everyone knew she'd be in the majority party then) may have carried some weight.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

No. Her win didn't really have much to do with the D wave, given Obama barely got 40% in the state that year.

I don't think anyone is saying she rode Obama's coattails...just that it was such an overall favorable environment for D's that an incumbent Dem. senator couldn't lose. Hell, it was the only seat the GOP really contested that year. They didn't even run someone against Pryor!