Two Guesses

[The_Doctor]

Your own article says:

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It also feels that Trumpism isn't a long lasting ideology and I tend to agree.

More ever, I disagree with this analysis. Jackson continued the Jefferson - inaugurated majority, McKinley the Lincoln industrial economy, and Roosevelt was a realigning President. Reagan's coalition has clearly lasted and shaped the presidencies and Congresses of his successors.

You might want to consider 2008-2016 as a dealigning era, where we move away from the Reagan Republican era and no party holds the majority stakes.

I think that 2016 is certainly the beginning of a realignment ... towards the Democrats.

EDIT: Let me elaborate a bit. The Lincoln Industrial realignment had the North and industrial labor and business behind it, and they were growing. The New Dealers had the working class behind it, which was hugely behind FDR. Reagan had the growing suburban majority. What's the Trump realigning group?

[The_Doctor]

I think that 2016 is certainly the beginning of a realignment ... towards the Democrats.

EDIT: Let me elaborate a bit. The Lincoln Industrial realignment had the North and industrial labor and business behind it, and they were growing. The New Dealers had the working class behind it, which was hugely behind FDR. Reagan had the growing suburban majority. What's the Trump realigning group?

1.  I'm talking about a realignment, but not necessarily a Republican one.  Looking at the original page, it would have been a Democratic one, long term.

2.  Trump seems to have populists, the white working class, and the old social conservatives.  There was not one single group in the famous "New Deal Coalition."

1. Are you of the opinion we're moving towards a Democratic realignment in the coming decade or undecided? Can't really tell from your posts.

2. Interestingly, the groups you list in the Trump coalition are all shrinking. No religion is the fastest growing religious group; white working class folks are shrinking (by educational status), and the populists...well. Any long term GOP populist groups would need Latinos within the GOP coalition. That's true, the New Deal coalition united urban immigrant whites (including the old Polish & Eastern European contingents), African Americans, and the South.

[The_Doctor]

Another thought. Realigning parties tend to be fairly strong, right? They tend to have stable leaderships, stable relationships between the party elite and the base, and generally on the same page? I think this is another strike against the GOP remaining the majority party (which they are).

I kinda feel Bush 43 was the confirmation of Reagan's realignment like McKinley was the confirmation of Lincoln's realignment and so on.