The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[The_Doctor]

I don't think the underlying fundamentals behind the vote change. GA 06 being what it is a disappointment but SC 05 suggests that the GOP is putting itself at risk with passing the AHCA. We'll see next week of course.

[The_Doctor]

An alternative sketch of why this law MIGHT pass. Polarization might be pushed to an all time in American politics, thus overriding other normal factors. It's quite interesting, really. I've constantly ignored polarizaton as a factor in American politics during this time.

So, for example, Republicans in Congress might make the assumption that they're better off passing the law and motivating the Republican base to turn out in 2018. Looking at GA 06 and SC 05, they may make the conclusion it's better to put the law on the President's desk and then motivate Republicans to turn out in 2018. Republicans didn't show up in SC 05 and they need a reason to show up in 2018 (and they showed up in GA 06 through infusions of millions).

I am really skeptical whether they'd really try to attack blue collar voters in WV and KY and elsewhere with this law and phase out the Medicaid expansion and threaten the health care market to the extent this law would. But they may just assume that to push the margins up in 2018, to keep Congress, it's worth it and try to hope for the best beyond 2018.

But I don't think we should foreclose the possibility of passage. EDIT: I definitely want to see what happens next week. GA 06/SC 05 definitely introduce new variables to think about and I still think the law will fail… but I'll wait and see what wins out first, polarization or popularity.