The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[The_Doctor]

Young, Valdao, knight, and dehman all switch to yes

They sponsored the Upton Amendment but I'm not sure on final passage. We'll see.

[The_Doctor]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

I'm starting to think that your timeline might be slightly derailed from the GOP being idiotic as an institution.

We'll see. depending on where it goes I'll write an article but the GOP is pretty self destructive and have been so for a while. Also in my timeline RyanCare (similar to this) passed the House and died in the Senate ...

[The_Doctor]

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but how long can the Republicans delay a CBO assessment?  I imagine they'll want to keep the ramifications of the bill under wraps for as long as possible.

The CBO will almost certainly score it before the Senate takes it up or around the time debate begins in the Senate.

[The_Doctor]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

If the Republicans thought town hall protests were bad before, they've got a whole other thing coming if they actually manage to narrowly pass this in the House.

They get to do a big hoorah about working closer to "killing" Obamacare and handing Trump a quick win, and screw themselves over in the long term. There are so many different ways this could come to bite them in the ass, it's beyond myopic they're pushing themselves to pass it. They're borrowing instant political capital now charged against political gains later.

This isn't even mentioning how badly they will get burnt in the state legislatures by granting states the leverage to control pre-existing coverage. On the off-chance this monstrosity actually becomes law, the current setup is a silver bullet to undo all of the gains Republicans have made in the state chambers come the midterms. All the Democrats have to do is campaign on maximizing state coverage on preexisting conditions and out goes the Republican majorities.

Yup.

[The_Doctor]

If ACA can only being replaced with a simple majority....then couldn't you technically replace AHCA with Single payer with just a simple 51 votes in the Senate as well?

There might be some parliamentary issues with it but I don't know per se. The AHCA is on the books for just ten years if it passes because reconciliation is a temporary tool rather than designed to pass major laws. The Bush tax cuts were passed but Obama significantly altered them because of the ten year issue.

I would assume that we might revert to the ACA in ten years actually if these things expire? I don't know how it would work but I do know the entire thing has a sunset I believe.

[The_Doctor]

They had seven years to come up with a coherent ~conservative health care solution~. SEVEN ING YEARS OF CONSTANTLY RUNNING ON OPPOSING THE ACA. Is this turkey all they're capable of?! Is it all they want to be capable of?! Why the hell didn't they prepare a halfway acceptable bill two, or five, or seven years ago that they could pass when they got a Republican trifecta?! Why didn't they spend any of that seven years coming up with something that wouldn't cause people to die in a heap if passed?

Any healthcare solution that does not involve more government will be met with accusations of letting people die.

Name me a conservative, sensible plan they could have come up with that wasn't going to be met with scorn from you people?

Do you have one in mind and can you lay out how it works to cover people, deal with inflation in healthcare, and deals with catastrophic illness? You did ask me for my opinion, what would you do?

[The_Doctor]

If ACA can only being replaced with a simple majority....then couldn't you technically replace AHCA with Single payer with just a simple 51 votes in the Senate as well?

There might be some parliamentary issues with it but I don't know per se. The AHCA is on the books for just ten years if it passes because reconciliation is a temporary tool rather than designed to pass major laws. The Bush tax cuts were passed but Obama significantly altered them because of the ten year issue.

I would assume that we might revert to the ACA in ten years actually if these things expire? I don't know how it would work but I do know the entire thing has a sunset I believe.

No, because the ACA was also passed by reconciliation and would have to be voted on again by Congress, I believe.

No it passed with 60 votes right before Brown was seated as Massachusetts' Senator. It's permanent law while the AHCA isn't. Reconciliation wasn't used to pass it. That's why it has all these regulations the GOP can't repeal.

[The_Doctor]

10%. The CBO will cause issues and I think the Senate and House will have a hard time reconciling their versions. I don't think it's politically possible to toss people off Medicaid with impunity and not see some political consequences.

[The_Doctor]

Name me a conservative, sensible plan they could have come up with that wasn't going to be met with scorn from you people?

I'm not an expert on health policy, asshole. Why doesn't your party put an ounce of effort into this if it wants to know?

I'm afraid the gentleman you are asking doesn't really know either what he advocates on this subject or can defend anything like it, as far as I can tell. Like a lot of Trumpkins his worldview boils down to “if the liberals scream it must be good!” I advocated a position and I think he ran away from further inquiry or introspection?

For instance if you were to suggest not eating asbestos he and a number of Trunpkins would probably, as a matter of debate and defensiveness, rush out to deplete the stocks of asbestos to consume en masse. That's an example but I think it makes my point well.

[The_Doctor]

10%. The CBO will cause issues and I think the Senate and House will have a hard time reconciling their versions. I don't think it's politically possible to toss people off Medicaid with impunity and not see some political consequences.

This bill genuinely worries me. I get my insurance through Obamacare (as do many of my friends with pre-existing conditions) and my parents are on Medicaid. How would this bill affect them? All live in CA by the way.

I have no clue yet per se. It depends on the final product making its way out of the Senate and reconciliation. The way I understand it, the Upton amendment allows one state to opt out of pre-existing conditions and then every other insurer can follow the standards of that state.

But that's really very tentative knowledge and as I said the Senate hasn't taken it up yet.

I'd recommend reading a number of policy articles IF a law is passed at all and working from there. As it stands it sounds like the Senate will -- if it even passes -- drastically change it.

[The_Doctor]

Maybe you should change the name of the thread? :-D

There's still 20 votes against it. It may or may not pass the House but the Senate will almost certainly kill it.

Out of curiosity do you grasp what the ACA and the repeal law does and do you understand the insurance markets in America? Somehow I think your nuance here is severely lacking and is reducible to “BAD DEMS.”

EDIT: Here, do your homework. Look up reconciliation. I'm fairly sure you have never ever grasped the concept of reconciliation before in a Congressional bill, let alone heard of it before.

Sorry mate, but I'm very well informed in the US legislative process and of course I'm aware of the Reconciliation process that's why I'm very sure that it will pass both chambers. I'm pretty sure that it'll will go one of the two reasonable ways:

1. House Bill agreed to in the Senate by 51 or 52 Votes without changes.
2. Senate amends the bill, passes it and it gets back to the House where the same Reps who voted for the first version will back it again.

Unsurprisingly you didn't answer the first part of the question.

[The_Doctor]

Ok, I guess it passes and then if it dies in the Senate, all the moderate reps say they were shocked when the CBO score came out and showed later it was a bad bill.

Pretty much my sentiment of what happens at this point.

[The_Doctor]

GOP has the votes!

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/860154277003767811

Pass the Bill! Trump wins again!

Still has to pass the Senate. Then reconciliation (which I doubt you knew about until I told you to research it).  I noticed you were awfully quiet until this happened.

Do get 'round to a non 14 year old defense of the bill when you can. I'm sure we're eagerly waiting for your nuanced defense of the law. Something tells me you haven't even researched the law until I asked you about what you knew about healthcare in America.

As I said about Marty a lot of Trumpkins have a poor grasp of policy. Your posts seem to be in line with that.

Also um: Trumpy hasn't had a legislative victory before this one.

[The_Doctor]

Didn't Clinton win Amodei's district in Nevada? Ditto McSally in Arizona. These are fast growing Latino districts that have substantial amounts of citizens negatively affected by AHCA.

Senate odds are steep, since there will be a CBO score and whatever comes back to the House will be vastly more moderate… if it clears the Senate. Remember a ton of Republicans are up in 2020, when the expansion ends in 2019.

[The_Doctor]

Ah, Trump won NV-02 52-39%. Amodei was a false no. David Young won in a district that backed Trump by just 3 points though which makes me wonder why he flipped. Does he assume Iowa is getting redder?

Beutler is from liberal Washington. But Trump won her district 50-42% so I'm guessing East Washington so she may feel safe to vote yes.

[The_Doctor]

Hurd is from a district that went Clinton narrowly and has a history of going back and forth. It borders Mexico. Hurd also won by just a point in both '14 and '16. If he votes yes he could become an even higher priority for Dems to knock off. 66% Hispanic.

Still think Curbelo is a no as will Issa and Knight. This will be very close.

[The_Doctor]

So they're saying 217 will vote yes. I anticipate the Senate killing this by making it vastly more moderate and unpalatable to the HFC.

[The_Doctor]

GOP has the votes!

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/860154277003767811

Pass the Bill! Trump wins again!

Still has to pass the Senate. Then reconciliation (which I doubt you knew about until I told you to research it).  I noticed you were awfully quiet until this happened.

Do get 'round to a non 14 year old defense of the bill when you can. I'm sure we're eagerly waiting for your nuanced defense of the law. Something tells me you haven't even researched the law until I asked you about what you knew about healthcare in America.

As I said about Marty a lot of Trumpkins have a poor grasp of policy. Your posts seem to be in line with that.

Also um: Trumpy hasn't had a legislative victory before this one.

Sorry but neither do I take you seriously (after the Macron/LePen nonsense from you in the FRance thread) nor do I take lections from you. In my eyes, you simply have no clue what is going on and I'm by far better informed than you about Reconciliation. But I can wait, won't last long and I was right again. Like in March ;-)

1. “Lectures.” if you're going to try to respond at least know your English. I don't know enough German aside from Mein Kampf
2. I have voted for far more Republicans than you have - including the last 3 GOP nominees before Trump. Definitely not a liberal at all. Plus I've voted for GOP Congresses since 2004. I definitely believe I am more conservative than your alt right nonsense. Should I go on? Including my Santorum 2012 vote? Believe me I've been backing the Right longer than you ever conceived of the alt right.
3. The same March vote where the vote was cancelled?

Lastly nice cop out of actually defending the bill which you presumably don't know about. I see like all Trumpkins you're too afraid to have an intellectual debate and will run away shortly when things turn bad for the GOP.

[The_Doctor]

So Hurd is a no. Means Issa or Knight has to walk the plank or Curbelo.

[The_Doctor]

Lets see how the Senate handles this. There's clearly only a 4 vote margin in the House. It definitely will be vastly changed and we'll see in the Senate.

[The_Doctor]

once again...what is your take?

is reconciliation becoming all-powerful or is this thing just d00med?

Senate is bogged down in infighting and the bill dies or the Senate sends a bill back to the House that they wont accept, after Conference hashes it ou

The fight in a 52 member Senate Majority is going to be interesting. I understand Snowe, Cotton, Daines, and Capito have issues with the bill.

I think that the healthcare fight will be far more damaging to the party than imagined. They couldn't pass it on the first try and this barely passed the House 217-213.

[The_Doctor]

This is just the beginning of the winning!

Hopefully we can build the wall, ban abortion, ban gay marriage, deport all the illegals and get rid of the anchors babies! USA!

Lame trolling.

How is LePen by the way?

[The_Doctor]

I thought Classic Conservative didn't like the bill? I could be mistaken.

A flip side to everyone cheering how do you feel about preserving 80% of ObamaCare? You know the exchanges, subsidies, and the mandate is all still there right? The expansion will be moved leftwards in the Senate as well.

You do know that for all the changes we're still to the left of 2009?

[The_Doctor]

This is just the beginning of the winning!

Hopefully we can build the wall, ban abortion, ban gay marriage, deport all the illegals and get rid of the anchors babies! USA!

Please find another thread to troll on. Even better find a board that I don't moderate. Thanks.

Give me 30 minutes with one of these people and I'll have them agreeing this bill is bad. I know they haven't read the bill or really understand what's in it.

[The_Doctor]

This is just the beginning of the winning!

Hopefully we can build the wall, ban abortion, ban gay marriage, deport all the illegals and get rid of the anchors babies! USA!

Please find another thread to troll on. Even better find a board that I don't moderate. Thanks.

Give me 30 minutes with one of these people and I'll have them agreeing this bill is bad. I know they haven't read the bill or really understand what's in it.

TD,

You're an intelligent and logical person who isn't hellbent on partisanship, so you're open to facts and persuasion. People like Classic Conservative are not.

I might be but look at my posts from 2014-2016. I was a pretty rabid partisan Republican. I still am a Republican in registration (and as late as April 2016 I voted Cruz). In all honesty it took Trump to convince me that the Party was on a dangerous path and this bill proves it. The Republican Party would rather win on partisan grounds than preserve our market based insurance system, thus leading to collapse faster.

I'm more angry that the GOP chose to legislate ad hoc on 1/6 of the economy without understanding why health care is such a huge deal anyway. Donald Trump and people like CC don't really care whats in the final bill -- hell they could put single payer in it and if they got credit they would claim it a great conservative victory.

There's a certain blindness on the Right that parallels 1970s liberalism in ignoring the new era we are in. Health insurance costs have vastly outpaced inflation and is fairly inelastic in that there's a considerable demand for it that won't go away or can be substituted.

This is the problem. Instead of finding a solution they chose to figure out the most radical ideas and didn't assess if they would make healthcare better.