MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The_Doctor]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

Nuclear elmo plz too

[The_Doctor]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

he was body slammed too

[The_Doctor]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

President Cordray is very pleased.

[The_Doctor]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

[The_Doctor]

Why does Montana take so long to count?

[The_Doctor]

How will the loser concede? Will there be a pin down?

[The_Doctor]

Montana State Board of Elections

New York Times results page
Fivethirty Eight results and analysis
Decision Desk HQ

MT Treasurer's post here for easy access

Associated Press
Decision Desk
NY Times
Secretary of State

[The_Doctor]

I await the calm rational voices of dispassionate analysis to come forth and offer a lively, educational view of results.

[The_Doctor]

DK Elections: Quist carrying Lewis and Clark County 53-42% with half in; Bullock won it 60-37% in 2016.

[The_Doctor]

It seems a lot of noise about what we're seeing. Given Montana and the events, I'm not sure what to expect.

[The_Doctor]

Good lord, Gianforte leading in Big Horn. Still early, though.

In your opinion, MT, is Gianforte outperforming or underperforming in general?

Based on the NY Times results, he is undeperforming and not getting the numbers he needs. But like I said, let's wait for more returns, LOL.

70% in before we make any determinative guesses?

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte is doing very well so far.

Any conclusions you can draw for us right now based on the results? Like, is it clear to say Gianaforte is on track to win or are these results still in flux?

[The_Doctor]

TD, Cordray isn't winning Montana in 2024.

Montana will go Democratic in 2024 But Quist's strength tonight is quite interesting. The swing towards Quist compared to 2016 is telling.

[The_Doctor]

The swing towards the Democrats is still on the level of some 20% right? So even if GF wins, the GOP still looks in bad shape on Election Night 2018.

[The_Doctor]

Could we just listen to the one Montanan here who has been tracking this race from day one?

[The_Doctor]

Could we just listen to the one Montanan here who has been tracking this race from day one?

TD, it is ridiculous that you are in here desperate to trash your own party.

What are you talking about? I haven't trashed the Republican Party here. WTF? Where have I said anything tonight? I was referring to MT Treasurer.

[The_Doctor]

The most interesting thing is the swing. The trends continue to look like a lot of GOP victories but looking weak for 2018, as I said.

If Quist loses by 2-3% it doesn't necessarily mean a negative outcome.

[The_Doctor]

TD, it looks like the short term trends will make 2020 have just as strong of a rural GOP vs. urban Democratic divide as 2016 right?

Yes. Most likely, yes. Assuming Pence is the nominee.

[The_Doctor]

We're calling this race before the Election Day vote is in?

[The_Doctor]

I don't think anyone can extrapolate without 50% in.

[The_Doctor]

So if he's guilty of the misdemeanor, can he stay in the House? Or will he have to resign?

[The_Doctor]

MT Treasuer/TN Vol has consistently said the vote can get very funky in the 70-90% range. He said at one point Pianoforte was ahead with 80% in but Bullock pulled ahead.  

[The_Doctor]

So did the scandal have any impact? Or did Republicans just close ranks around Gianaforte?

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.