The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[The_Doctor]

Before I celebrate, I want to see 2 weeks of him at sub-40% and not rebounding to 45% or something. He's got an economic speech before Congress on February 28, but I assume by March 1, hell resume being peak Trumpy.

Still holding out for the long game here.

[The_Doctor]

Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.

I'd say also the Senate if the GOP lost NV, AZ, and TX (yes, Cruz could somehow lose) and that would accompany a Democratic majority in the House.

I'm highly skeptical, but we'll see.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.

[The_Doctor]

When Trumpists refer to Silver's 45% as more authentic to disprove a 38% rating, in the words of their Glorious God Emperor: Sad!

[The_Doctor]

A -14 rating compared to -18 is considered surging. Sad!

[The_Doctor]

GE needs these ratings up to convince Congress to pass his agenda, by the way. No way they kowtow to someone with deeply negative ratings. Congress puts themselves and their own reelection first.

So if he's still underwater in March or April, he might find his legislative agenda a much heavier lift. It could affect Obamacare repeal among other things (why would Republicans take on huge projects with an unpopular president?)

[The_Doctor]

We're generally getting two different types of polling based on the typology. Automated seems to be recording higher rates of support while live callers are seeing lower levels of support. That said the average has usually been spot on. A weighted average like what Silver plans would probably be the most accurate aggregate of where Trump stands.

[The_Doctor]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   

Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.

[The_Doctor]

This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.

Middle single digits.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup has been consistently the most bearish on Trump. So take it accordingly. The Silver Aggregate has him down 53-41, which is a better sense of where he is. I doubt very much that he's at 35% (requiring a 25% collapse among his voters).

He's probably underwater heavily in deep blue states and underwater in purple states and positive in red states.

[The_Doctor]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

[The_Doctor]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if"

Actually not a big if at all. It's called the business cycle.

We get a recession once every ten years. Last one was 2010. We're on schedule for one by 2020 at the latest. Why Trumpy is trying for anti-recessionary measures before the recession is kind of curious to me.

[The_Doctor]

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Sure but people transferred their approval of the economy from Obama to Trumpy. Not an uncommon political occurrence. It's why Trumpy eagerly took credit for the 298k jobs created in February.

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Not sure what that has to do with my point. Yes, Trumpy's people will rurn on him when we hit a recession -- but it simply means their lives were not improved by Trump. They're tolerating all the crap in the belief Trump will deliver meaningful economic growth to their areas and boost wages.

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Let's get one thing right. Trump is a traditional Republican president wrapped up in an authoritarian and faux populist foil. If he were anything near what he campaigned on he wouldn't be gutting student loans, backing changes to Medicaid, and all these small things. Trump is a captive of the dominant neoliberal ruling Republican establishment because he doesn't have the political capital to stand on his own.

Presidents are expected to deliver. He won't. His supporters will - like his shareholders in his bankruptcy cases and casinos - abandon him. The question is operationally will he leave at the right moment and deflect blame onto Pence down the road for all the crap happening will he be removed from power via impeachment?

Anyway lets not derail the polling thread. Just my two cents.

[The_Doctor]

Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationawide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I can agree with this, your partisan slant aside and rant about polling. (There's no skew to the Democrats). However a low to mid 40s yields victory only in solid Red states while preserving the Democrats in swing states. Meaning at best the Republicans will gain only 4-5 seats.

Red is where I think you're just spinning partisan silliness and blue where I agree.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

[The_Doctor]

The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

So you want to be an old fat white man who is a trust fund baby who angrily lashes out at people and is married to a woman who is solely there so she can inherit his money when he dies and you revere a sexual harasser.

Apparently to you getting laid, being rich, and getting away with ripping off people is the good life.

[The_Doctor]

Trump seems to have SLIGHTLY (maybe noise) to around 41-43% approval. Still piss poor, but not apocalyptic.

Some sort of victory could maybe short term push him to 45%, but Calfiornia alone will keep him below 50% ever in ratings.

In fact, harry enten estimates that if a republican doesn't do better than 35% in california and still wins the WH, he/she will never be above water in approval rating.

Doesn't bode well for the GOP. It means Trump is also below 35% in California, which mirrors his 32% vote share in there.

[The_Doctor]

It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

Something tells me they aren't thinking that Democratic rule will be a thing for a certain period of time because "MUH people become Republican with age"

No. Occam's razor. They simply haven't thought that far ahead and taking it day by day. There is no strategic long term thinking in the Republican Party right now. There's doing things now and hoping that the future works out somehow.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

The business cycle very rarely goes more than a decade without a recession. I say rarely because I haven't looked at recessions prior to 1920. But here; 1920, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1948, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2008, (?).

You'll notice that our last recession ended in 2010. It's highly unlikely that President Trump will not weather a recession by that period. Possible, but very unlikely.

[The_Doctor]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

Uh how?

[The_Doctor]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.

[The_Doctor]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

[The_Doctor]

Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Actually we did have a recession between March and November 2001. You see, before I talked, I checked my facts. Recessions do happen once or more every ten years. You might not believe it was real but there was this thing called the dotcom bubble bursting. It, among other things, affected tax receipts and economic growth in 2001. It certainly hurt a number of people who invested in the stock markets in the 1990s.

Let me explain again and this time with emphasis.

The dotcom bubble bursting prior to the official recession might have helped Bush win in 2000. Once again you're just trying to do “Republicans always mean good times” and wave away the business cycle because you somehow believe there won't be a recession in the next four years because Trump is president.

As you were saying… ?