How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors?

[The_Doctor]

Hogan will be re-elected, barring a national blue wave in 2018 (I don't expect that, even if we win the White House in 2016).

He's a pretty social media adept governor, and I don't see his opposition on social media that well. I also think he's co-opted well elements of the Democratic establishment (Peter Franchot, for example). The Democratic establishment in Maryland is pretty much like the Democratic establishment in DC right after Reagan's victory. (Hogan is no RR). The point is, they are sclerotic, so used to power, and so used to the status quo that a smart Republican can run circles around them. Miller and Busch have never really been challenged from the right. Ehrlich was a confrontational governor who was derided as a one-off, Hogan's the confirmation that Maryland is capable of electing Republican governors if they're angry with the status quo.

I think he's learned from Ehrlich and will be the first Maryland Republican to be re-elected governor since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s. I also think that his re-election - if smartly done - can pull Republicans to over 40% of the State House. Which means his vetoes get sustained in 2019. Don't forget, the number of county executives who are Republican in this state is among the highest levels in decades. There is a palpable frustration with the entrenched Democratic establishment; while I don't expect this state to flip Republican or anything, I can see Hogan's brand succeeding here.

Remember, nobody here was happy about the "rain tax" and what it symbolized about the O'Malley Administration. The DMV is a joke and there's widespread frustration about state government. If there wasn't, Hogan wouldn't have even breached 45% of the vote. It's as simple as that. Voters aren't ready to become Republicans or even vote for a Republican President or Senator (though if Mikulski steps down, due to old age, and Hogan appoints a smart moderate/liberal replacement, I hold out hope). But I don't think Maryland voters are happy with the status quo and are willing to tolerate Hogan's brand of conservatism.

In short, my prediction: he'll be remembered as a far more successful governor than what people here think.

[The_Doctor]

a. As I said, Hogan's a master of the new medium of communication - which is social media. The internet, Facebook, twitter, and so on is the new "television." Hogan has mastered that and I think it helped him in 2014. I think it will definitely boost his re-election margin by a few points. So yes.

b.  I would regard Peter Franchot as more from the conservative Democratic wing, but I'm saying Hogan has done serious outreach to Democrats since being elected governor. I'm not just citing Franchot, although Franchot is one example. You're overlooking the fact that Hogan has been assiduous about reaching out to Democrats and coopting people he can work with. That's an upgrade from Bob Ehrlich.

c. She's 78. She'll be 80 in 2016 and 86 by the time her 2022 term ends. I'm not saying anything will happen and I hope nothing happens, but if something were to happen, it is possible she would need to resign so that Maryland has a full time Senator. In any case, it's a hypothetical, not why Hogan would be re-elected.

d.  The point is, Republicans had a very good 2014 and frustration with the state Democratic establishment is at a considerable high point. I'm making the example that Republicans have become stronger, because of resentment over the state Democratic Party's policies in Maryland. This is not an unreasonable statement and there are other data points (+8 R in the state house, +2 in the State Senate).

e. Sometimes being there too long is not a benefit to understanding changing attitudes. If you've never been challenged in the course of your long career, you're unprepared for a real challenge. That's how I view the entire state Democratic Party.

Also, the rain tax was a dumb political move by Democrats. Of course, Hogan had the right to attack the dumb tax. It became a great symbol to defeat Brown. That wasn't antagonistic, it was a smart electoral move.

[The_Doctor]

Hogan will be re-elected, barring a national blue wave in 2018 (I don't expect that, even if we win the White House in 2016).

He's a pretty social media adept governor, and I don't see his opposition on social media that well. I also think he's co-opted well elements of the Democratic establishment (Peter Franchot, for example). The Democratic establishment in Maryland is pretty much like the Democratic establishment in DC right after Reagan's victory. (Hogan is no RR). The point is, they are sclerotic, so used to power, and so used to the status quo that a smart Republican can run circles around them. Miller and Busch have never really been challenged from the right. Ehrlich was a confrontational governor who was derided as a one-off, Hogan's the confirmation that Maryland is capable of electing Republican governors if they're angry with the status quo.

I think he's learned from Ehrlich and will be the first Maryland Republican to be re-elected governor since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s. I also think that his re-election - if smartly done - can pull Republicans to over 40% of the State House. Which means his vetoes get sustained in 2019. Don't forget, the number of county executives who are Republican in this state is among the highest levels in decades. There is a palpable frustration with the entrenched Democratic establishment; while I don't expect this state to flip Republican or anything, I can see Hogan's brand succeeding here.

Remember, nobody here was happy about the "rain tax" and what it symbolized about the O'Malley Administration. The DMV is a joke and there's widespread frustration about state government. If there wasn't, Hogan wouldn't have even breached 45% of the vote. It's as simple as that. Voters aren't ready to become Republicans or even vote for a Republican President or Senator (though if Mikulski steps down, due to old age, and Hogan appoints a smart moderate/liberal replacement, I hold out hope). But I don't think Maryland voters are happy with the status quo and are willing to tolerate Hogan's brand of conservatism.

In short, my prediction: he'll be remembered as a far more successful governor than what people here think.

To quote the Rock, do you really think that:
a: being more "social media adept" has any impact on elections? Like John Q. Public is going to the voter booth and thinking "well I am a follower of Hogan's vine and his thigh gap is bae"
b: Franchot represents the "Democratic establishment" ( look at any of his votes on the public works committee, there's a bunch of 2-1 votes where O'malley and Kopp vote for something and Franchot votes against because of some finnicky complaint. He was also very much against slot machines)
c: that Mikulski would resign early in her term, you know, because she would gladly give up a seat to a Republican
d: that the number of Republican county executives means anything at all (remember Romney won 19/24 counties in 2012). 1st of all, only 8 counties of Maryland have county executives. In 2014 Republicans picked up Wicomico and Howard, while Democrats won Frederick, which just switched to an executive system. Wicomico isn't exactly an urban metropolis and Kittleman's win in Howard IMO was entirely personal.
e: that Miller and Busch are such unskilled politicians that Hogan can be Carcetti to their Royce. You don't become the longest serving State Senate President in American history without having political skills.

To say that Hogan won't be antagonistic is absurd if you suggest that the anti-impervious surface fee (or pro-asphalt) lobby is so large. This campaign is entirely based on bashing environmentalists for wanting to do something about our bay. I'd say taking a reasonable way of financing stormwater runoff protections and turning it into a "ZOMG RAIN TAX" is fairly antagonistic!

k. Let's review Hogan when he has two sessions under his belt. The first one will be his maiden one and the second one would be good to see if he learns from year one as a rookie governor.