The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,272
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« on: November 19, 2014, 07:44:37 PM » |
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Very back of the envelope calculations.
The Republicans took 233 in 2012. Let's see what the GOP's 2016 floor is likely to be.
+ GA 12
+ NC 07
+ WV 03
- MI 01
- FL 02
- CA 31
- NV 04
So it would be 232 likely as a base point (-12).
Starting from there, it sounds like the GOP would have a huge leg up on 2016, even if Clinton won by similar margins to Obama. Probably, if you split the rest of the tossup, something like GOP 239 in the event of a Clinton win.
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