Potential Candidates in 2020

[ChainsawJedis]

There was a threat about this a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188084.0

But hey, it's a topic I still love to discuss so I wont shut it down.

Democrats in 2020:
Julian Castro
Joaquin Castro
Bill De Blasio
Kristen Gilbrand
Martin Heinrich
Martin O'Malley (Assuming he doesn't get the 16' nomination)
Corey Booker
Andrew Cuomo
Kamala Harris

Republicans in 2020:
Tom Cotton
Marco Rubio (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Rand Paul (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Scott Walker (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Ted Cruz (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan
Brian Sandoval

[ChainsawJedis]

There was a threat about this a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188084.0

Republicans in 2020:
Tom Cotton
Marco Rubio (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Rand Paul (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Scott Walker (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Ted Cruz (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan
Brian Sandoval

Going back 60 years, there have been 5 Republican non-incumbents who lost the general election: Nixon 60, Goldwater 64, Dole 96, McCain 08, Romney 12. Of those, Goldwater lost by over 20 points and 400 electoral votes. Dole and McCain, had they won next time around, would have turned 80 in their first term. So none were viable for the next cycle.

Nixon though was elected president next time he ran and Romney was leading most 2016 GOP polls and was a viable candidate. If Scott Walker (or Marco Rubio) is the 2016 nominee, they're well-positioned to be a or the frontrunner again in 2020, even with a general election loss up to 5 points. Cruz or Paul would be less likely because party leaders and FOX would gleefully pile on blaming the nominee of blowing it in a way they wouldn't with Walker (or Rubio). (If Bush loses the general election by the much, making it 3 moderate Republican losers in a row, the conservative wing is well-poisitioned for 2020.)

In other words, Scott Walker is in a great position to be the GOP's 2020 nominee if he is a strong 2016 runner-up but even if he is nominated and loses to Hillary. Unless he turns in a humiliating performance which feels like a distinct possibility.

I agree, I was going to add that in my parentheses but I was aiming to keep everything at one line. Rubio & Walker both would have a shot in 2020 or 2024 even if they got the nomination in 2016 and lost the general election. If the democratic president's approval ratings are low I could see a chance where Walker or Rubio come back in 2020 if 2016 was close. Rubio being so young, he probably has even more time than that (Walker isn't that much older though.) The reason I didn't include Jeb Bush on my list at all is because I believe if he runs this time, even if he doesn't win the nomination, this is his one shot in my opinion.

[ChainsawJedis]

I see Clinton VS Cotton for 2020.

[ChainsawJedis]

Paul Ryan is a major possibility assuming Hillary wins in 2016.

He'll have several years as Chairman of the House Ways and Means committee under his belt. He'd be expected to give it up after 2020 anyway and has hinted that he doesn't plan to stay in Congress after that.

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

If he runs for President and wins, that's one way to end a political career.

If he runs for President and loses, there are plenty of places he can get rich in the private sector.

I think it was a good decision overall on his part for holding off on running this time around. If he really is done in the house then 2020 may be his time.