Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014

[Beagle]

34.57% turnout at 16:00. Best areas:  Ilfov (Bucharest suburbia) - 40,1%, Sibiu - 39%, Olt - 39,1%, worst: Satu Mare - 27,1%, Covasna - 27,4%, Maramures - 28,7%.
 
The leaked exit polls from 13:00 seem to suggest a slight dip in the Ponta numbers (38-40% range) and an uptick in the Iohannis numbers, but nothing extraordinary. Macovei seems to be getting about 10%  - still woefully behind the top two, but at least ahead of the freak show.

[Beagle]

Polls have closed (for the most part).

All pollsters have Ponta between 43 and 38% and Iohannis between 32% and 31%. There are wide discrepancies for 3rd place, with Tariceanu, Udrea and Macovei having at least one pollster declaring for them. It's pretty clear, though, that none of them will pass the 10% mark.

[Beagle]

So, with 91.33% in, this is where we stand:

Turnout - 53.1%. Odd, this has gone up by half a percent since the BEC's official announcement of the end of the voting.

Ponta - 40.01% - runoff
Iohannis - 30.54% - runoff
Tariceanu - 5.46%
Udrea - 5.17%
Macovei - 4.51%
Diaconescu - 3.94%
Kelemen - 3.66%
Vadim-Tudor - 3.65%

Places that have a significant number of outstanding votes: Constanta (they must be still stuffing the ballot boxes as we speak, still at 40% 10 hours after closing), the PSD strongholds Olt and Vrancea, the PDL/PNL-favoring Bacau, Arad and Bihor, as well as Bucharest 4 and 5, which should be closely contested, though with Ponta on top.

There was some ugliness in the Romanian embassies abroad (mostly Paris, London and Vienna), where the voting procedure was extremely slow and voters who stood in line for hours were turned away as soon as the clock struck 9, because the Electoral commission declined all requests for extension abroad. Probably just a coincidence that Ponta is losing the precincts outside Romania by 50+%.

All in all, no surprises.

[Beagle]

The BEC, in their infinite government employee wisdom, have neglected to keep their previously announced schedule of releasing official vote counts because reasons. We have the 98.3% count which sees Ponta at 40.33% and Iohannis at 30.44%. If you want to see the basic map, google "Rezultate pe judete", though Ilfov and Bucharest has not reported in full yet (Giurgevo too, but it will be solidly red).

Some exit poll numbers:

Age breakdown of the voters for the major candidates:

Ponta: 18-34 - 19%, 35-49 - 26%, 50-64 - 31%, 65+ - 24%
Iohannis: 18-34 - 35%, 35-49 - 31%, 50-64 - 24%, 65+ - 10%

Education level (education is compulsory until the 10th grade):
Ponta: 10th grade or less - 44%, high school diploma - 41%, university degree - 15%
Iohannis: 10th grade or less - 23%, high school diploma - 48%, university degree - 29%

Because I'm still bitter and appalled that more people didn't support her: Macovei - 10th grade or less - 6%, high school - 45%, university degree - 49%

[Beagle]

Whoa, didn't see this coming. Not after all the usual suspects endorsed Ponta immediately after the 1st round and Udrea issued a half-hearted call for voting according to conscience. I'd love to see an explanation for the turnout boost across the country - I expected the Hungarians to come out in force, but it seems that all across Romania people came out to vote for Iohannis.