Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[vileplume]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Resurgence may be too strong a word but their may be an opening for the Lib Dems to appeal to heavily remain Tory constituencies where they have done well in the past e.g. Winchester. However it is far from a certainty or even likely that this would happen.

Lamb would have been a far better choice than Farron to appeal to socially liberal Tory voters. Farron is just fiscally too far to the left for many of these people's tastes.

[vileplume]

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

lol

The Tory brand is no longer moderate and moderates are what swing the key constuecies.

The LibDems will probably have a strong vote share.

Er no. The Lib Dems are irrelevant in most constituencies especially in the Con-Lab marginals which decide who forms the government. If you look at where leave did well at the referendum it did disproportionally better in most Con-Lab marginals than leave did nationally. If you are expecting some amazing Lib Dem surge in marginals like Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Erewash, Crawley etc. you are going to be severly disappointed.

[vileplume]

Regarding the upcoming Tory leadership election there is apparently talk that the Cameroon/remain wing of the party is considering throwing their support behind Andrea Leadsom in order to defeat Boris as they don't think a remainer could ever get past the membership.

[vileplume]

Safe Johnson win if Corbyn survives, lean Labor if he's ousted for someone sane.

It is definitely true that the Labour membership threw the Tory party a massive lifeline by electing Corbyn as leader. Even if Corbyn is deposed though Labour's massive problems with the skilled white working class/lower middle class are still very much there. Unlike the USA there are simply not enough ethnic minorities and middle class lefties to replace their votes.

[vileplume]

Why?! IF Tories just have a small lead over Labour with Cameron as leader, why would Tories win with Johnson as leader?

Because the opposition is also extremely disunited and has a leader who doesn't appeal to very many people beyond the Party's activist base (and a few Greens).

[vileplume]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

[vileplume]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

Ok, it might take a couple of elections. Then, again, until Scotland secedes, we may be observing Westminster elections with a somewhat increased frequency

The chances of a general election before 2020 are pretty low I would say. There is no way that the Tories would hold one unless they know that they will get a huge majority. The country is pretty polarised so there isn't much chance of that though I think if a general election was held in a few weeks the Tories would win and get a larger majority than they have now. If Scotland does leave as you appear to want then the Tories chances of getting a majority increase significantly due to the loss of their worst part of the UK.

Also try to refrain from using certainties like 'will' when talking about future events even if you think they are highly likely. Nobody can predict the future and  things often happen which nobody can foresee or as Harold McMillan famously supposed to have said: 'events dear boy, events'.