He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.
Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.
I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.
Economic problems in illinois are much deeper than california's.
For example california managed to create net jobs since the GFC in middle of 2014.
http://i.imgur.com/mE4jBzi.pngWhile Illinois has had a lost generation since 2000.
http://i.imgur.com/G26QOes.pngAlso Rauner ignored social issues and hammered quinn on the poor economy performance of three consecutive termed democrat governors.
It was basically, hey if blago and quinn failed, why not try a republican for once?
And so a lot of democrats and independents who voted for Dick Durbin split their ticket for Rauner.
Its quite difficult for progressives and conservatives for some reason to accept that side show issues like being for or against gay marriage and minimum wage doesnt mean much if people feel their pockets recede.
Francois Hollande helped get gay marriage approved but he has a 10% approval rating.
