2014 US Congressional Election Results

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Fox calls Iowa for Ernst. Ballgame.

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Tillis defeats Hagan per Fox.

Looking R+9 if LA and AK follow.

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This isn't a wave. This is a tsunami.

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Brown concedes the obvious in NH.

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On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

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In unrelated, Eastern news, Kathleen Rice has received a checkmark. Will Hurd is leading Pete Gallego 50-47 with 85% in; bar something unexpected, Hurd should be called as the winner soon. Most too-close-to-call races left east of the Four Corners are either very slow counters: in ME-2, with 49% in, Poliquin leads 46-43; in NE-2, with 62% in, Ashford leads 49-46; and in MN-8, with 61% reporting, Nolan leads 49-47; headed for an acrimonious recount, which would be NY-18 and NY-25; and places where what's left will cut the lead down strongly, so MD-6, where Bongino leads 50-48 but what's out is strongly Democratic. Those six are all that's left east of the Four Corners (excepting TX-23, which to me looks like it'll be getting a checkmark any minute now). West of the Four Corners, there are still lots of things which are unclear.

What's the House shift looking like about R+10 or maybe more?

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It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.

Well past expectations as well.

Amazing how Louise Slaughter almost lost in NY-25.

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UT-4 goes into the R column. Called for Love per CNN's website.

50-47 with 99% of the vote in.

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Alaska update

Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 160 36.28%

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      160   36.3%
Times Counted      107415/509011   21.1%
Total Votes      106397   
Begich, Mark   DEM   47399   44.55%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   3807   3.58%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   2211   2.08%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   52507   49.35%
Write-in Votes      473   0.44%

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Alaska update - 44.2% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      195   44.2%
Times Counted      130571/509011   25.7%
Total Votes      129351   
Begich, Mark   DEM   57288   44.29%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   4660   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   2619   2.02%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   64189   49.62%
Write-in Votes      595   0.46%

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Alaska update - 55.1% in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      243   55.1%
Times Counted      158536/509011   31.1%
Total Votes      157062   
Begich, Mark   DEM   69537   44.27%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   5633   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3070   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   78126   49.74%
Write-in Votes      696   0.44%

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Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% ).

They still have to count the absentees in New York, IIRC. Still likely a Maloney win either way.

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Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      176419   
Begich, Mark   DEM   78218   44.34%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6300   3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3393   1.92%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   87711   49.72%
Write-in Votes      797   0.45%

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AK - At Large called for Young by RCP. Bringing the Republicans to 239 (plus the two shoe in seats in LA for 241).

Current Race is Young +10

US REPRESENTATIVE      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      174806   
Dunbar, Forrest   DEM   71316   40.80%
McDermott, Jim C.   LIB   13219   7.56%
Young, Don   REP   89517   51.21%
Write-in Votes      754   0.43%

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Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      325   73.7%
Times Counted      195234/509011   38.4%
Total Votes      193436   
Begich, Mark   DEM   85259   44.08%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6964   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3774   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   96563   49.92%
Write-in Votes      876   0.45%

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AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.

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Alaska Senate Update 76% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      344   78.0%
Times Counted      200587/509011   39.4%
Total Votes      198743   
Begich, Mark   DEM   87932   44.24%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7139   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3864   1.94%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   98916   49.77%
Write-in Votes      892   0.45%

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AK Senate Update - 86% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      378   85.7%
Times Counted      214334/509011   42.1%
Total Votes      212342   
Begich, Mark   DEM   94171   44.35%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7814   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4178   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   105218   49.55%
Write-in Votes      961   0.45%

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Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.

Yeah and as of a few minutes ago when I looked, Republicans have a shot at possible gains in CA-7, CA-16, CA-26, CA-52, AZ-2 and ME-2, too.

Dems can pick up NE-2 and CA-31.

NY-25 has been overlooked but pending absentee ballots, long-time incumbent Louise Slaughter is a few hundred votes ahead of her Republican challenger. Unlikely to switch, but that race was assumed safe.

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Alaska - 94% of the vote in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      415   94.1%
Times Counted      220312/509011   43.3%
Total Votes      218260   
Begich, Mark   DEM   97852   44.83%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   8041   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4304   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   107079   49.06%
Write-in Votes      984   0.45%

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Alaska narrows... 97% of the vote in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      427   96.8%
Times Counted      226050/509011   44.4%
Total Votes      223953   
Begich, Mark   DEM   100565   44.90%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   8256   3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4415   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   109716   48.99%
Write-in Votes      1001   0.45%

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That vote barely narrowed. Sullivan has got this

Don't mind me. My eyes aren't the best at this hour.

Assuming there are about 20,000 ballots left (including the Bush), they'd have to break about 3:1 in favor of Begich in order for him to win. I doubt a 15K-5K sample is very likely.

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Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

Assuming 40K votes out per speculation on this thread, votes would need to fall 24,000-16,000; roughly  60/40.

Assuming 30K votes out, it would roughly have to be 19,000-11,000 or 63/37.

Assuming it's just the 22K absentees remaining, the vote would have to be 15,000-7,000 or 68/32.

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Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

Damn, 40,000?

It's more like somewhere between 22,000 and 40,000. The difference are absentee/early ballots that were requested, but not received.

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Called for Abraham (no surprise).

Nothing's really shocking here. The only question is how big is the Cassidy landslide win.