GA-AJC: Perdue +2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 28, 2024, 09:34:18 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  GA-AJC: Perdue +2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GA-AJC: Perdue +2  (Read 1417 times)
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


« on: October 24, 2014, 10:47:20 AM »


Reports of Perdue's alleged demise based on a poll showing Nunn up 2 and 3 in a runoff state are greatly, greatly exaggerated.

Hunt is polling about 3-4 points higher than the historic Election Day result. Six-percent is possible, but unlikely.  It looks like this seat may be destined to be decided on January 6.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 10:51:59 AM »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.

Don't like the result = garbage?

Come on dude.

All the polls are basically in the same ballpark, given MOE. And the libertarian has been polling 4-6% almost uniformly. They likely will NOT get there on Election Day.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 11:16:47 AM »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.

Don't like the result = garbage?

Come on dude.

All the polls are basically in the same ballpark, given MOE. And the libertarian has been polling 4-6% almost uniformly. They likely will NOT get there on Election Day.

It's garbage (also known as an outlier). We have a clear trend here from (five?) polls, and this is showing the complete opposite. 7% of the electorate didn't suddenly re-neg on their choice overnight, with an additional 3-5% flipping from one candidate to another. Swafford isn't getting anywhere near 6%; that's patently ridiculous for a race like this and she'll be lucky to pull 2% when the dust settles. Hunt won't even get that, and there's a lot more at work in that race to make such a thing possible.

Given MOE , I fail to see how Perdue +2 is not plausible. IN any event, it shouldn't matter. It's likely looking runoff at this point.

Last 6 polls on the race.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution    Perdue +2
CNN/Opinion Research            Nunn +3
InsiderAdvantage                Nunn +2
SurveyUSA                            Nunn +2
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB   Nunn +1
WSB-TV/Landmark                Tie
PPP (D)                                Perdue +3
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 12 queries.