CO-06: Coffman in the lead

[Recalcuate]

Oh well. Romanoff will be back to spank Coffman in 2016 when Clinton helps the Democrats take the House back.

The Democrats aren't taking the House back any earlier than 2022.  Gerrymandering will see to that.

It's quite possible the gerrymander will fall apart once Obama gets out of office. The gerrymander is based on the political coalitions formed during his first campaign and the presidency. Gerrymanders do tend to fall apart as coalitions change and as there is movement of people within a metro area/state. That is what happened in 2006 and 2008 as the Democrats overcame Republican gerrymanders to win big.

2006 was just a transformative year as Democrats took a lot of traditional Republican-leaning districts as voters tired of George W. Bush. They were able to sustain the momentum in 2008.  That, of course, changed after the Democrats sloppily passed Obamacare and there was predictable pushback in '10.

2012 brought a more favorable Republican Congressional map due to reapportionment and more gerrymandering (although the Republicans lost about 10 seats due to Obama's coattails). The Republicans will likely regain a few of those seats on the fringes in '14.

While it's possible for the Dems to retake the House before '22, their real impediment is the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which forces majority-minority districts. That allows the rest of a competitive state to be sliced with Republican-leaning districts while you have some crazy D+30 districts solely designed to elect either an African-American or Latino candidate.

[Recalcuate]

Oh well. Romanoff will be back to spank Coffman in 2016 when Clinton helps the Democrats take the House back.

The Democrats aren't taking the House back any earlier than 2022.  Gerrymandering will see to that.

It's quite possible the gerrymander will fall apart once Obama gets out of office. The gerrymander is based on the political coalitions formed during his first campaign and the presidency. Gerrymanders do tend to fall apart as coalitions change and as there is movement of people within a metro area/state. That is what happened in 2006 and 2008 as the Democrats overcame Republican gerrymanders to win big.

2006 was just a transformative year as Democrats took a lot of traditional Republican-leaning districts as voters tired of George W. Bush. They were able to sustain the momentum in 2008.  That, of course, changed after the Democrats sloppily passed Obamacare and there was predictable pushback in '10.

2012 brought a more Republican Congressional map due to reapportionment and more gerrymandering. The Republicans will likely add a few seats on the fringes in '14.

While it's possible for the Dems to retake the House before '22, their real impediment is the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which forces majority-minority districts. That allows the rest of a competitive state to be sliced with Republican-leaning districts while you have some crazy D+30 districts solely designed to elect either an African-American or Latino candidate.

I'm pretty sure we'd see a net loss of Democratic seats without the VRA, Republicans would just have greater flexibility in when and how they decide to pack minority voters.  I believe DK elections once did a pretty through state-by-state analysis of this and came to the same conclusion.

That's interesting. Obviously geography comes into play, but the simple math would tell you that you'd have more flexibility as a Democrat if you could disperse Democrat voters into more R-leaning districts.

I guess the analysis comes down to who controls the state legislature and the governor's mansion. But I do think if the state house and governor are all Democrats, there's some creative line drawing that could go on to add a few seats.