IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2

[Ryan in Iowa]

The Iowa firewall is holding!

Braley shall not pass!

Braley wins on election day.

You think?  Iowa doesn't exactly have the reliable minority votes whose turnout is often underestimated in the polls (e.g., CO, VA and FL being more Democratic than polls showed).

The last 2 close elections in Iowa where the Dems had a full turnout operation

2008 President  real clear politics underestimated O by 6.2 !
2012 President  real clear politics underestimated O by 3.4

So yes, polls clearly have underestimated Iowa D support since the infrastructure/turnout operation was built in 2008.

[Ryan in Iowa]

Thanks to Bruce Braley for pissing away what was by all accounts a very winnable race.

Braley actually done well since his stupid comment. The farmer comment clearly hurt in in rural areas, but he still will win. Even in this poll he is winning the early vote by 21.

I am not saying it won't be close, but I see Braley winning by 1-3 %

[Ryan in Iowa]

Whatever Selzer's final poll shows is what my prediction will be. In 2010, their last poll for Senate was spot on and Governor was pretty close. In 2012, they had Obama up 5 while others had it much closer.

Even Selzer missed in 2010, even tough they were closer. Everybody focuses on Colorado, Nevada as D support missed, Iowa is worse. Every election since 2008 pollsters have missed badly to one side.

Final Results   --   --   53.0   43.3   Branstad +9.7
RCP Average   5/25 - 10/29   --   52.3   37.3   Branstad +15.0
Des Moines Register   10/26 - 10/29   805 LV   50   38   Branstad +12
Rasmussen Reports   9/23 - 9/23   500 LV   55   37   Branstad +18
PPP (D)   5/25 - 5/27   1277 LV   52   37   Branstad +15

[Ryan in Iowa]

Whatever Selzer's final poll shows is what my prediction will be. In 2010, their last poll for Senate was spot on and Governor was pretty close. In 2012, they had Obama up 5 while others had it much closer.

Even Selzer missed in 2010, even tough they were closer. Everybody focuses on Colorado, Nevada as D support missed, Iowa is worse. Every election since 2008 pollsters have missed badly to one side.

Final Results   --   --   53.0   43.3   Branstad +9.7
RCP Average   5/25 - 10/29   --   52.3   37.3   Branstad +15.0
Des Moines Register   10/26 - 10/29   805 LV   50   38   Branstad +12
Rasmussen Reports   9/23 - 9/23   500 LV   55   37   Branstad +18
PPP (D)   5/25 - 5/27   1277 LV   52   37   Branstad +15

To be fair, pollsters are more accurate in distinguishing a +1 lead from a +5 lead than they are at distinguishing a +9 lead from a +13 lead.  I don't know why, but that's pretty well-established.

I agree, however, in Iowa, they miss either way. Missed in 2008, 2010, 2012 by sizable margins. Dem support in polling averages is underestimated in Iowa, their is a clear pattern.

[Ryan in Iowa]

Your right in 2008 sorry (I was looking at the Clinton/O numbers).

2010 and 2012 was a different story. D support was underestimated.

[Ryan in Iowa]

Yeah it is easy to look up, HE JUST LINKED IT. The last Survey USA poll in 2008 had Obama up 15 in Iowa. I mean, for god sakes, read the god damn thing. Are you kidding me?

I wish Survey USA still did Iowa