Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016

[porky88]

1. Hillary Clinton -- I think she gets enough of the Obama coalition to turnout that she can win the presidency with 40 or even 39 percent of the white vote. Under that scenario, I imagine something like 52 percent of the popular vote and 323 electoral votes. In many ways, she went from being overrated (she won’t win 350-plus electoral votes) to being underrated after the Midterm. The 2016 electorate is going to be dramatically different than 2014, and she’s the biggest benefactor from it.

2. Scott Walker -- Every block of the Republican Party has something good to say about Walker. The Establishment likes him because he has won three times in a blue state. Conservatives like him because he has a conservative record. His personality isn't controversial as Chris Christie's is, and his last name won’t drag him down like Bush‘s could. I think he's the Republican frontrunner. By default, that makes him the No. 2 most likely elected POTUS in 2016.

3. Chris Christie -- I actually think the Republican fight is going to be between Christie and Walker, not Rand Paul/Ted Cruz up against the establishment. Christie is a boom or bust candidate.  He ran a great 2013 re-election campaign. He ran a great 2014 campaign as the head of the RGA. His temperament could sink him, though.

4. Jeb Bush -- He’ll have all the establishment money at his back, but I think he faces an uphill climb nonetheless. In the primary, he needs to convince conservatives that he is one of them. In the general, he needs to convince the electorate he is more like his father than his brother. He can make this climb, especially if the political environment turns on the democrats as it did on the republicans in 2008. Nevertheless, I think a Bush vs. Clinton matchup is a referendum on the last names. That bodes well for Clinton, in my opinion.

5. Rand Paul -- Somehow, he manages to win the nomination by bringing together his father’s libertarian coalition, conservatives, and moderate Republicans that want a more dovish foreign policy. A recession hits, and the environment is toxic for any democrat. Paul does better than Romney did among whites, and he manages to win at least 45 percent of voters under 30. Honestly, I think he’s a distant fifth on the list, but the topic asked for five.