Ontario 2018 election

[Boston Bread]

Vic Fideli is the interim leader.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-progressive-conservatives-interim-leader-patrick-brown-election-1.4505104
Whether there will be a leadership election is uncertain.

[Boston Bread]

The GTA vs. non-GTA difference is less pronounced than I think many would have suspected. 

What was expected exactly? You could have argued for Ford doing better in the GTA (more immigrants, familiarity) or outside (more blue collar).

I’m surprised how well Elliott did in Peel actually.

[Boston Bread]

Registered for the list of the absentee electors, as I moved to America.

I had the choice of voting in 3 ridings. I previously registered in Barrie-Innisfil, but my parents now live in King-Vaughan so I could have registered there too, and I could also vote in Waterloo as I'm a student there.

I chose Waterloo. For any NDP supporter Waterloo is a no-brainer.

I'm now waiting for a ballot to be sent to my Massachusetts address.

[Boston Bread]

In the SW I think the NDP wins every riding that went Liberal or NDP in 2014, plus Chatham and Sarnia.

[Boston Bread]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

[Boston Bread]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

[Boston Bread]

If you looked at Waterloo from 1990-2011 you would've thought it was a solid PC seat, yet in 2014 the PCs came third. Popular incumbents can mess with things. And similarly enough in London North Centre the PCs came third as well in 2014.

[Boston Bread]

If the riding polls are right there's a good chance the Liberals will get no seats at all. St. Paul's should be their safest seat in Toronto. And Ottawa-Vanier is their safest seat in Ottawa, but if the NDP are willing Ottawa West-Nepean then they are winning Ottawa-Vanier.