Canadian Federal Election

[Boston Bread]

BQ

why?

NDP of course

[Boston Bread]

Would not vote, given the absolute dearth of worthwhile left-wing parties in Canada

I think people who don't have a party they like right now should strategically choose a party that promises to implement proportional representation (basically the NDP), because that's the only way you're going to get a new leftist party that appeals to a narrow section of the electorate to win seats without screwing over the centre-left.

[Boston Bread]

Out of curiosity, I put the poll #s in my model and here's the seat projection (interpreting "Christian Heritage" as Other and "Other" as Green since I don't model parties that get <1% of the vote):
240 NDP
95 Conservative
1 Liberal
1 Green
1 Other

The one liberal is in Scarborough-Agincourt.

[Boston Bread]

The Bloc gains 4% in Quebec for every 1% nationally. So from this poll BQ would get 13% in Quebec.

Practically, BQ getting 20% in Quebec, or 5% nationally, should ensure them 1 seat. Their vote is extremely spread out among the Francophone parts of the province, same with the NDP. As a result FPTP screws them over epically if they trail the NDP by more than 10 points. In 2011 Quebec voted 43-23 NDP-Bloc and the Bloc got 4 seats and the NDP 59.

But in a scenario where the NDP gets >50% nationally, they will be at the 60-80% range in almost every Quebec seat.